Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Stay Alert and back Kinross

Ascot, Saturday

QUICKTHORN has to be the bet at the prices in the Long Distance Cup (1.25pm) at 12/1. Now clearly his effort in Paris last time doesn’t inspire confidence, but that was a freaky race and the fact Hughie Morrison wheels him out again suggests he is can’t be feeling too many ill effects. The bald facts are that his earlier Longchamp and York efforts were way too good for him to go off at double figure odds here, particularly as Trueshan isn’t completely bombproof, Eldar Eldarov won a poor Leger and Waterville took all day to win a handicap.

KINROSS is the one for me in the Sprint (2.00pm)at 11/2. A quick glance shows him found wanting at six furlongs at this level, but he’d have gone close in this a year ago but for a nightmare passage, and he’s a much, much better horse now. Anyone knows cut in the ground suits him well, and he should have too much class for these based on his three most recent starts. There is plenty of pace around his draw, too, which is a plus.

STAY ALERT (10/1) and ROSSCARBERY (14/1) are a split-stake job in the Fillies’ and Mares’ (2.40pm). The former really impressed me in the spring, and even more so when beating a good field of older males at Newbury with quite bit in hand. That was the first start with David Egan aboard and she can come forward again. Rosscarbery travelled like the winner for most of the Irish Leger (no disgrace behind Kyprios), but this distance is where she has looked most comfortable and it is significant that Paddy Twomey runs her in preference to others.

MODERN GAMES looks the bet at 7/2 in the QE2 (3.20pm). While this might be a bit of an afterthought, my feeling is that he’ll be fine on the ground up the straight and that the balance of his form is just that bit better than Inspiral. There is no way he should be four times her price at any rate. The win at Woodbine was franked by an excellent effort from the runner-up last weekend, while he thrived with racing in the autumn last year.

BAAEED can round off his career in style in the Champion Stakes (4.00pm) at 1/4. Although tempted to jump on the Adayar bandwagon (short straight, make it a test, get first run, fresh horse etc.), I’m wondering if this narrative might ensure Baaeed starts about twice the price he ought to be given his clear superiority. And I’ve realised that talk of his stamina is pretty barmy given we were all screaming for him to run in the Arc three weeks ago.

MIGRATION can set the seal on William Buick’s championship season by winning the concluding Balmoral handicap (4.40pm) at 17/2. He’s a pretty smart horse, fresh, and still on the upgrade. He can run well off a break and is really one of the only horses here open to any progress. Easy ground and a strong pace are both huge plusses. He needs a finesse ride, but he’ll get one.