Nick Luck’s blog: Rebel can conjure winning King George Gambit

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck picks out his best bets on a big Saturday from Ascot and York.

Ascot, Saturday

SIMMERING should prove hard to beat in the Princess Margaret at Ascot (1:50pm), where William Hill are offering their Top Price Guarantee. About the best maiden around, her Albany second has been franked several times subsequently. Furthermore, her work companion bolted up in the Star Stakes at Sandown this week, plus the form of her principal threats here needs significant improvement. She’s a strong favourite.

SIRONA has possibilities of upsetting the front two in the Valiant Stakes (2:25pm). She went very well for a long way in the Falmouth and, while I’m not getting carried away with that rather sub-par Group One, she travelled beautifully and was probably not best positioned in a small field given the way that habitually speed-favouring track was riding. This round mile should suit well, and she’s edging towards a big effort.

METAL MERCHANT gets another chance in the International, and makes particular appeal with William Hill’s extra place concession (3:00pm). I can’t get out of my head just how smoothly he glided through the Hunt Cup, while I’m very happy to forgive a tepid effort on gluey ground at Sandown on Eclipse day. This drop back to a likely furiously contested seven furlongs must surely suit now.

REBEL’S ROMANCE is the percentage call in the King George (3:40pm). A five-time Group One winner at this distance in as many different countries, he’s just become a rock-solid performer again, a straightforward ride and strong stayer suited by fast ground. There is no way he should be three times the price of Auguste Rodin, whose credentials are clearly excellent, but who nonetheless reserved this race last year for one of his curious blowouts. Ballydoyle second string Luxembourg won’t be fair away either.

York, Saturday

SOUL SEEKER might be primed to repeat last year’s success in the Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe (2:05pm), under 2023’s winning rider Micheal Nolan. A series of undistinguished efforts this year have him just two pounds above that mark, but fully seven pounds below his most recent winning mark last autumn. And there’s been just enough in his recent efforts (particularly at Haydock) to suggest he’s not a busted flush.

DAPPER VALLEY is chancy but interesting in the Dash Handicap (2:40pm). On three occasions, this horse has flashed talent that suggests this mark is a low bar relative to his ability. Now gelded, you can only hope that all that ability is unlocked. If so, and he reproduces his excellent run at Newmarket first up this year, this strong traveller is a danger to all on this track.

KING’S GAMBIT is the choice in the York Stakes (3:15pm). A pretty unfortunate second behind a smart horse at Ascot, connections immediately signalled a desire to look at the highest grade this season. This will test those aspirations, but he could be given a more positive ride here in a small field, one whose tactical nuances might not obviously suit the keen-going Passenger and Alflaila.