Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: AW Finals Day Best Bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews ITV’s racing on Good Friday from Lingfield and Newcastle
Lingfield, Good Friday
LADY MANZOR has a chance to repeat last year’s win in the Good Friday TV opener at Lingfield (1.30). She’s not really kicked on from that success, but has run respectably nonetheless, and will appreciate a slight drop in grade and a return to this distance. Headgear goes on – probably a plus – and she’s more kindly drawn than last year.
SELENIC makes some appeal at decent odds in the staying handicap (2.05). She’s no superstar, but remains somewhat unexposed, and pedigree and running style scream that she wants this sort of test of stamina. Add the cheekpieces to help her travel, and you could be looking at a whole new proposition on the day that matters.
CARBINE HARVESTER is the pick in a knotty sprint handicap (2.40). Truth be told, I expected a bit more after he was gelded, but the ability is very much still in tact, and he’s been set a couple of pretty stiff tasks this year. He’ll appreciate these calmer waters and – in particular – a return to Lingfield, where he’s run two of his best races. He’s nicely drawn, and should get a good set-up here.
TOWERLANDS is a speculative choice in the ten furlong event (3.15). He’s quite a talented horse, whose ideal distance is a bit of a mystery. Suspicion is, however, that he just needs an end-to-end gallop to run at, which he might get here at a track where he’s looked very effective. His overall record in races of this nature is pretty consistent, and he’s rates a fair each way bet at worst.
UNASSUMING is gearing up towards a big day (3.50). She was a little unlucky last time, enduring an ordinary trip, but she’s hovering off a dangerous mark and is clearly in very good heart. Admittedly the draw has done her few favours, but she has plenty going for her besides in a slightly weaker race.
Newcastle, Good Friday
SILENT STRIKE can land a tremendously competitive TV opener at Newcastle (1.50). Andrew Balding has rather made this race his own, and this promising son of Mehmas is progressing sharply, looking one step ahead of the handicapper into the bargain. This is no cakewalk, but two of his siblings were quite a bit better than this mark, and Oisin Murphy takes over today. Good chance.
FOUETTE makes some each way appeal in the fillies’ race (2.25). She progressed really well last year – particularly effectively on an artificial surface – and was pretty unlucky not to be at least placed in a pair of Listed races last back end. What she doesn’t want is a falsely run race and she shouldn’t get one here. There could be some mileage in following her trainer this year, and this would be a good starting point.
TYRRHENIAN SEA doesn’t win that often, but looks sure to run a nice race today under perfect conditions (3.00). His recent form puts him bang in the mix with the front of the market, yet he’s more than twice the price. Given his predilection for a well-run, stiff mile and his clear effectiveness at Newcastle (11123 plus a career best), he should at least outrun those odds.
WILTSHIRE is not without risk in the sprint, but could come with significant reward (3.35). An habitual slow starter, he’ll need a bit of luck, but he’s really well handicapped, enjoys this track (gives him a bit of a chance to get into it) and won’t need to improve much from a recent breathing procedure.
GAUCHER can defy top weight in the ‘Classic’ (4.10). He’s supposed to be a good horse – after all, he’s by Frankel out of a half-sister to an Arc runner-up – but he’s really looked it now he’s finally been campaigned on the Flat at around the correct trip. This is harder for sure, but there’s no telling where his current improvement will plateau and I suspect the answer will not come in a handicap.
BEYLERBEYI is about the best bet of the day in the concluding staying event (4.45). His progress last year was astounding, culminating in winning the Cesarewitch easily, and he could do quite a lot better still. He’s been campaigned over shorter to cram in the requisite qualifying runs for this, but has still been running with credit. A return to two miles could see him turn on the style.
