Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Ayr Gold Cup Day Tips
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Ayr Gold Cup Day and Newbury’s Mill Reef card.
Saturday, Ayr
THUNDER ROAR will be ready to roll in the first TV race at Ayr today (1.20). He won this last year off a higher mark and, much like a couple of yesterday’s winners, has been marking time and sliding down the weights through the summer. Now he has his conditions, a recent pipe opener under his belt and a top jockey booked, he should be back in business.
ECUREUIL SECRET is the most appealing one in the Doonside Cup (1.55). He’s done well in just three starts for this yard, but now reappears after a long absence. That said, he’s defied that successfully before, is right up there on form, and was still improving when last seen. There’s also a strong chance he’ll handle the ground, and the yard appears to have targeted this fixture quite intently this year.
MUSICAL TOUCH looks slightly overpriced in the Silver Cup (2.30). Quite lightly raced for his age, he’s one of only a couple in here whose best days could realistically be ahead of him. His York win in the summer off just a three pound lower mark was achieved decisively and with a bit of cut in the ground. That proved a big field event like this should hold no fears, and he ran a perfectly sound race on his prep for this the other day, held up and never nearer than at the finish. Expect bolder tactics from a good draw today.
RUBY MOON could be the answer to the Firth of Clyde (3.05). She made a really bright start to her career, with her Duchess of Cambridge form reading particularly well. She blew out in the Lowther, but she’s forgiven one below par effort and can redeem herself here with a greater emphasis on stamina.
BINHAREER might be a boring selection for the Gold Cup (3.40), but he nonetheless appeals as much the likeliest winner. First he comes here with fresher legs than most, with just the three runs this year. Secondly, he’ll adore the very soft ground. And, third, his form and progressive profile suggest that he’s well on his way to stakes company. He is ostensibly drawn quite well, and confidence is understandably high. Fine Interview, Volterra, and Aramram are others to consider each way at varying prices.
Saturday, Newbury
MISS YECHANCE can brook the gap to Group company in an admittedly deep-looking sprint at Newbury (1.02). Albeit it’s possible it was a freaky effort at York, the manner in which she dispatched a good field was striking and was backed up by a strong time figure. This yard were still getting to grips with her, and there’s no telling how far she might go with that sort of brazen speed.
FURTHUR might spring back to life in the staying handicap (1.37). He was running big in the Melbourne Cup eleven months ago, but has been quiet this year. His mark is starting to look atttactive, though, and he’s returning to his favourite venue. A recovery would not be a major surprise, especially with William Buick booked.
JOLIVETTE could put it up to Arapaho Gold in the Mill Reef (2.12). She ran really well in the Lowther as it stands, but might have done even better had she not had to over come draw and pace bias. That form is very strong in the context of this race, and she can make the most of the six pounds she receives from the favourite.
STEM gets another vote in the ten-furlong handicap (2.47). He is a pretty smart horse, but needs a bit of winding up, just keeping on dourly at Sandown last time. Jamie Spencer has an excellent record on him, however, and there is no way he is over handicapped.
