Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Orazio can take winning Flight at Ayr

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck picks out his best bets on two strong Saturday cards from Ayr and Newbury.

Ayr, Saturday

ARAGON CASTLE looks a nice play in the TV opener at Ayr on Saturday (1:15pm). This is a pretty tough race with lots of dangerously well treated old lags lurking (Revich et al), but I prefer the improving three-year-old, who was a bit far back at York to really show his full hand. He’s working with a more forgiving surface here, and I suspect he’ll get a more prominent ride at this trip.

PHANTOM FLIGHT (1:50pm) has been a star this season for these connections, and has the right set-up to run another big race. This is a good bit easier than York, where he ran into a proper three-year-old filly who was in receipt of all the allowances.

ALFA KELLENIC can extend her winning spree in the Silver Cup (2:25pm). She’s a wickedly strong traveller, as shown over seven at York last time, and this drop to a stiff six is just fine to allow her to stay ahead of the handicapper. While it’s really hard to get away from the improver, ADMIRAL D will also take a bit of my each way support on the basis of the Hills extra place. He’s saved his best for Ayr these last two seasons, and is one of many now on a dangerous mark.

IT AIN’T TWO could be hiding in plain sight at huge price in the Firth of Clyde (3:00pm). She’s been hard on the go all season, but she’s thrived, and posted a best effort on her penultimate start at Chester, walloping the useful Cressida Wildes. That effort is comparable to just about anything here, and her most recent effort – when too far back in the Sirenia on her first try on a synthetic surface can easily be forgiven.

ORAZIO has a real shot in the Ayr Gold Cup (3.35pm). Although he’s been a bit hit-and-miss, his best gives him a strong chance off this mark, particularly as he seems best off a decent break and with just enough ease in the ground. Anything like his Wokingham run sees him bang there, and perhaps a bit of Billy Loughnane magic will do the trick.

Newbury, Saturday

DESPERATE HERO looks overpriced in the Newbury curtain raiser (1:30pm). He gave his long-odds supporters a real shout in the Flying Five last week despite being drawn on the wrong side, and he can appreciate a return to an easy fine furlongs here and just bowl along. If a deluge should arrive, that will not be an issue.

WAXING GIBBOUS could be tough in the staying handicap (2:05pm), looking every inch a horse who wants a real trip and probably soft ground as well. He bumped into a classy and well-treated horse in Epic Poet last time, and faces nothing of that calibre here. Not So Sleepy is always dangerous in these conditions, and warrants maximum respect on what could be his swansong.

BOLSTER still has quite a bit to offer and can prove that in the 10-furlong race (2:40pm). He was dominant in winning from just three pounds lower at Epsom and, while his limitations have been somewhat exposed in Group company, the first of those runs came when a respectable fourth to the Leger winner, while the second was on fast ground over too sharp a trip. This looks much more like it.

BRIAN looks undervalued in the Mill Reef (3:15pm). He would have been very close to Symbol Of Strength in a strong edition of the Sirenia had he been a little handier, and this sterner test will suit him much better. He’s won here before, has plenty of experience, and won’t mind if the rains come pretty hard.