Nick Luck’s blog: Back Street to come First in Relkeel

Cheltenham

HARPER’S BROOK might defy official ratings by springing a surprise in the New Year’s Day TV opener (1.20pm). In short, the front of the market looks a little overrated: Monmiral has not really run to his lofty reputation in recent times, Beauport is a horse I love but wants softer ground, while Thunder Rock has been judiciously placed. The selection was well backed, travelled beautifully and was value for way more than the margin at Bangor, and the stable is red hot. He is unexposed and can take another step forward at 9/1.

HAPPYGOLUCKY looks overpriced at 9/1 in the feature handicap (1.55pm). His comeback run off just a pound lower was outstanding; the only one to really put it up to L’Homme Presse. This return to an intermediate trip on the stiffer new course should be just about ideal, and he will find this opposition significantly easier.

FIRST STREET makes appeal at 4/1 in the Relkeel (2.30pm). I think Nicky Henderson has the key to this, and respect Marie’s Rock enormously, but – given a well run race and a sound surface – the selection is not far off championship calibre, and there’s a chance another half a mile will bring him further forward. He showed another string to his bow with greater application at Newbury on his seasonal debut.

ABUFFALOSOLDIER has fair claims of following up his Newbury success (3.05pm) at 5/1. Lightly campaigned and improving, he saw out the trip really strongly that day, showing that he could hack it in this grade, but not getting too much stick from the handicapper. There are relatively few proven stayers in here, but stamina will be no issue for him.

Musselburgh

GOLD DES BOIS (7/1) is my idea of the bet in the first of two TV races at Musselburgh (1.35pm). He was running quite a nice race in this last year off a higher mark when unseating late on, and has arguably been in better form this time around. His latest effort at Cheltenham can be upgraded as he attempted to match strides with a very well treated horse before fading, shaping second best.

VOIX DU REVE is a win and place bet in the Hogmaheigh hurdle (2.45pm) at 9/1. He has run well in this on more than one occasion, including off much higher marks, yet his form has not deteriorated as much as might seem the case at first glance, and he actually ran pretty well when outclassed in the Fighting Fifth. There’s a nice bit of pace in here, and I always prefer this horse at the minimum trip when the pace is hot.

Tramore

MINELLA INDO is a bit tricky to predict away from Cheltenham, but might still have too much class in the Savills at Tramore (2.15pm) at 11/8. Stattler is sure to be all the rage, but he surely wants a fair bit further than this and the form of his Cheltenham win isn’t really worth a awful lot. Given how the Mullins horses are firing, he may well be overbet and make the 2021 Gold Cup winner a backable price.