Nick Luck’s blog: Bank on The Big Breakaway at Kempton

We are very much counting down the days till the Cheltenham Festival, but before we head to Prestbury Park there’s some good action to look forward to. 

That kicks off with Kempton, Newcastle and Lingfield this weekend and here are Nick Luck’s thoughts.

Kempton

DEYRANN DE CARJAC looks as though he could finally have his day in the opener at Kempton (1.15pm). The handicapper has erred on the side of generous this season, dropping him for running pretty well in much better races at Cheltenham. The track and ground here will be spot on, and these are significantly calmer waters. He must have a big chance at 4/1.

IROKO is an each-way play in the Adonis Hurdle (1.50pm) at 18/1. I have extolled the virtues of his French form in an earlier column, and think he could be a player in a Fred Winter, but he wants to be running well here, else he might not make the cut. His Chepstow effort on his British debut came in a Grade One behind Porticello, not beaten miles considering the testing conditions, and he could easily improve for a better surface here.

MILLERS BANK is the sort of slightly flawed horse people love to oppose, but he is probably not a bad price at 9/2 to win the Pendil (2.25pm). Despite unseating the last twice, his jumping is fundamentally pretty sound, and he may well have been helped by his recent breathing operation. The most compelling reason for picking him, however, is that believe his potential remains untapped over fences. He has an excellent record going this way round and the ground should suit well.

RUSSIAN RULER is a pretty tasty price at 14/1 in the Dovecote (3.00pm). To my eye, this horse looked all about speed when finishing rather weakly behind today’s rival Moriko De Vassy at Doncaster. He travelled so well, I cannot believe that finishing effort was reflective of his ability and if he has taken a step forward as entitled, he should be competitive deep into this race. Given his trainer’s insanely strong hand in this division this season, his very presence in a Graded race must be significant.

THE BIG BREAKAWAY gets a rather nervous nod in a really trappy edition of the feature Coral Trophy (3.37pm). He warmed up for this with a very decent effort over hurdles at Newbury after a breathing operation in mid-winter. Although he has been a little ungainly at times through his career, he looked plenty pacey enough when trying to concede a stone to Bravemansgame round Newton Abbot in the autumn, just giving best when falling at the last. If he gets into a rhythm round here, he could be in a different league at 15/2.

Lingfield

LORD RIDDIFORD (3/1) might show them all the way in the Hever Sprint at Lingfield (1.30pm). A smart and speedy all-weather horse when on song, he used exactly the same prep as last year at Wolverhampton last time, and ran at least as well. Given that he tends to improve a bit for his first run off a break, he should be sharp this afternoon.

FANCY MAN is taken to take a couple of notable scalps in the Winter Derby (2.05pm) at 4/1. He has looked a bit of a synthetic freak the last twice, quickening up really sharply both times. He should get a fair target to aim at here with Al Zaraqaan likely to rough up last year’s winner Forest Of Dean on the front end. The fact Lord North didn’t go to Saudi suggests that he is perhaps not sparkling as you’d like after a year off with problems, while Alenquer’s run style doesn’t scream that he’s crying out for this test.

Newcastle

LAKE VIEW LAD can roll back the years in the Eider at Newcastle (3.15pm) and is a cracking each-way price at 18/1 if all 17 stand their ground. He’s now nearly a full stone lower than when beaten less than 10 lengths in the Scottish National last time, has run well more than once this season, and any horse can be forgiven for raising the white flag in the Haydock mud. This is an easier race around a more suitable track on nice ground and his old class can prevail.