Nick Luck’s blog: Mare You Wear could cause Challow scare

Nick Luck gives his best bets on the final day of racing in 2022.

CASA TALL is given the vote in the TV opener at Newbury on New Year’s Eve (1.15pm). He continues to slide down the handicap, but has shaped the last twice as though this grade remains within his compass. There was certainly more encouragement at Sandown last time, when the impressive winner never allowed any rival an inch, and – on a track where he has run well before – he now makes some significant appeal at 9/1.

PIKAR is very difficult to escape in the handicap hurdle (1.50pm). The handicapper has been most generous putting him up just five pounds for his romp at Chepstow, and that effort has been nothing but advertised by Hullnback and Master Chewy, who were thrashed by the selection that day, but who now have to race off comparable marks. His unexposed profile and likelihood of being well suited to conditions make him quite compelling at 11/4.

SHANTY ALLEY seems to have some upside in the Mandarin (2.25pm). After going missing completely last season, his comeback run at Wetherby seemed to suggest that his recent breathing operation had worked. Indeed, he was a little unfortunate not to win, as he saw a view of the front a little soon and was a sitting duck. He remains very well treated on his old form at 8/1, and has habitually stepped forward for a seasonal debut in the past.

YOU WEAR IT WELL has plenty on her plate in a 14-runner Challow Hurdle (3.00pm), and she could have done with the Haydock race that was her intended target not being abandoned, but she has made a striking impression in her three victories, particularly in small race at Hexham when jumping the last as though she could go round again and powering through the line on a stiff track. Yes, there is an element of guessology involved here, but it is interesting that connections risk messing up a generous looking mark of 125, and I feel this imposing mare can make her presence felt at 20/1.

MALINELLO has plenty left to offer, and looks appealing in the last (3.35pm) at 6/1. From a quality family, he’s not taken much racing, but looked altogether a more mature article on his chasing debut at Newcastle at the end of November.  That was a tidy enough little race and the runner up has posted another improved effort since.

LUCKY SO AND SO might just be worth chancing at big odds of 16/1 in the first TV affair at Warwick (1.35pm). Connections are riding the wave of their Welsh National triumph and, while this one might not be another one of those, he’s well capable of winning a race on the limited evidence so far, looks to need a proper trip and soft ground, and has not been harshly treated on his handicap debut, particularly as he caught the eye more than once in his qualifying runs.

THE KINGS WRIT is in the last chance saloon, but might work his way out of it in the conditionals’ race (2.10pm). He has come down fully 22 pounds over five runs in just a year. Most of those were in a far higher grade, and he showed up quite reasonably until the home turn at Exeter on his comeback. He ought to at least show up here, and is a very decent price at 25/1.

JILLY COOPER can serve up a knee trembler in the one TV offering on Lingfield’s Polytrack (2.40pm). This isn’t the most mouthwatering race, but this tough filly is 1-1 at the track, has held her form pretty well, and will be assisted by William Buick. 5/1 could be a steal.