Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Boothill to upset Clarence House headliners

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews action from Ascot, Haydock and Lingfield, including the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase.

Ascot, Saturday

KARGESE is really tough to oppose in the TV opener at Ascot on Saturday (1.40). She’ll be a very tight price – maybe too tight on ratings – but it’s very hard to fashion a case against her given how well her form from last season has panned out.

MARTATOR can win at Ascot again, even off his lofty perch of 151 (2.15). He ran off the same mark when made a heavy favourite to win the Desert Orchid in what transpired to be far too much of a speed test. He loves this track, and showed last year that he can cope over this sort if trip, so may yet do better still. He has a Ryanair entry.

GOSHEN might surprise a few people by turning back the clock in the Holloway’s (2.50). This isn’t a great race for the grade, with the types of horse often slated for this headed to Windsor the previous day. As such, Goshen doesn’t really need everything he had, even off top weight. If you could design a race for him, this would be it – right handed, soft ground, intermediate distance.

BOOTHILL is a perilous, but reasoned, suggestion to spring a big surprise in the Clarence House (2.50). He keeps falling, which is a bit of a problem, but bear with me. He got within a couple of lengths of Jonbon in the Shloer, when all the principals were having their seasonal debuts, and was happily tanking along when coming down at Kempton (same fence as previous year). He’s probably a very similar calibre horse to Edwardstone right now, but he has an exemplary record at Ascot, with his sauntering defeat of First Flow last season a particular highlight. Put simply, conditions are perfect. So why can he bustle up the big two? Well, Jonbon has run his worst race of the campaign at a corresponding stage in each of the last three seasons, while Energumene – although a clear pick on his best – is a little harder to assess now. In addition, both principals are at their best when driving on mid-race, a set-up which may well allow the other pair to get a sniff late on. Therefore, at the prices and with that compelling Ascot record, Boothill is recommended to small stakes.

Haydock, Saturday

DEDICATED HERO is the one that I could see – if any – giving Royal Infantry a race in the Rossington Main at Haydock (1.55). The favourite will be a really tough nut on official ratings, but that may tell only half the story at this early stage of their careers and I have no doubt the selection is a good horse. He caught my eye in a bumper last May when travelling strongly and scooting clear on ground plenty quick enough, while he slammed a fair field back at this trip last time, value for even more than the eight length margin.

TRELAWNE can make the most of the stone that he receives from Royale Pagaille in the Peter Marsh (2.30). The top weight is majestic at Haydock, but subtly changed race conditions make his weight bearing task even harder this time, while he had a documented hold up after his latest run. The selection – having won nicely here in November – patently hated going right handed at Ascot, yet still ran with great credit. Even that makes him a notable threat, while there is every reason to think he can do better.

PUNTA DEL ESTE is the pick in the Challenger Qualifier (3.05). He had a range of engagements, but he seems to like Haydock, so this makes sense. He’s not been terribly consistent, but has run well both starts this season, looks like he needs another try at three miles, and drops a little in class here.

Lingfield, Saturday

SAX APPEAL makes some appeal in the Lingfield race that sits within the Opening Show on ITV4 (10.15). He is unexposed at this trip, may be best caught fresh, is from a yard in form and gets Billy Loughnane, already flying after his trip to Australia.