Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Derby Day Best Bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Derby Day at Epsom and gives us his best bets for the action.
Saturday, Epsom
Epsom’s Derby Day card kicks off with the Tattenham Corner Stakes (1.30pm) which has a funny look to it, and Golden Mind might be the outsider to take advantage.
Clearly, Never So Brave is the class act judged on his City Of York run last year, but I’m convinced that he wants a lively surface to be seen at his very best. Connections might also be teeing him up for a big performance at Ascot, so I’ll swerve him at 6/4.
I’m prepared to take a chance on Golden Mind at a bigger price who’s coming into this with some very progressive handicap form. I don’t think he’ll find this too difficult and he’ll really appreciate the softening ground, having shown his liking for ground with plenty of cut in it.
His stable has a good record at this fixture and he looks overpriced to me.
David Loughane looks to have found Sparks Fly a perfect winning opportunity in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes (2.05pm). She was third in the race last year and you can make a cogent case that that was a stronger edition than this one.
After that, she won a Group Three at Saint Cloud in very soft ground and today’s worsening conditions will be no problem to her. In addition, she could easily be the controlling speed, which may enable her, if the jockey so chooses, to tack down towards the stands rail if that is favoured today.
In the Coolmore Coronation Cup (2.40pm), Bay City Roller is the most overpriced horse of the day. Because the sponsors have such a great record in it, and are running three there including second favourite Jan Brueghel and last’s year’s Derby winner Lambourn, there is a blithe assumption that they’re simply going to dominate.
However, I’m not sure it will work out perfectly for them with some classy operators in opposition. Convergent is one, but he might struggle to show off his sharp turn of foot should it become a real slog. Bay City Roller, by contrast, can’t have the ground deep enough and has reappeared this season in rip-roaring form with two excellent seconds.
First of which to Lambourn at Chester, where I think he might have won in slightly different circumstances. And then in Ireland in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, behind a horse in Almaqam, who is right in the mix with some of the very best around.
I think that gives Bay City Roller a perfectly sound chance of mixing it with these on form and with conditions in his favour, he simply has to be backed at big odds.
Arklow Lad gets a narrow vote in the Dash (3.15pm). He appears to have the best of the draw, though that can often be a little bit dangerous, just judging on Friday’s evidence.
I don’t think stall 20 is a massive disadvantage for a horse who’s blessed with as much pace as he has. His run at York was a good effort last time out, and this track and test should suit. And most importantly of all, he’s got plenty of form with cut in the ground.
In the Derby (4.00pm), James J Braddock is my main selection over Pierre Bonnard, taking a fairly positive view of the Leopardstown Derby Trial, while respecting Aidan O’Brien’s contention that Pierre Bonnard is going to take a big step forward but given the rain that’s fallen overnight.
I think James J Braddock might really come into his own over further I can see him staying this far and a bit more in in due course. His ability to handle soft ground is clearly a major factor, and I also liked how balanced he looked when landing his trial.
In most Derbies I’d say Pierre Bonnard lacks a gear and the tactical speed needed to be there at the finish, but given the rain we’ve had, it may just turn into a grueller which he’ll love. James J Braddock now narrowly gets the vote over Pierre Bonnard, but I do take quite a strong view of the William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial form as well.
I can see both Bay Of Brilliance and Maltese Cross running pretty big races. And I just think the way the conditions are might ultimately play against some of the class in the race, notably Benvenuto Cellini and Item.
