Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Joel Stakes Day Preview

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Friday’s ITV Racing action from Newmarket.

Friday, Newmarket

ARISAIG might surprise a few in the TV opener at Newmarket on Friday (1.50). The first note is the abundance of pace here: Sirona, Fair Point, Spiritual and Noisy Jazz are likely to get on with it and, although the Rowley Mile tends to favour that style of racing, softish ground and competition for the lead should neutralize the traditional bias. The selection is much more talented than her mark, has run pretty well here more than once, and seems to be holding her form better than some. Jamie Spencer will ride her typically chilly and seems to get the best out of her. She’s guaranteed to finish off strongly – I’m working on the basis that the others may have done too much running early.

SEA OF ROSES is the pick in the Princess Royal (2.25). She did well to beat subsequent Leger-placed Deira Mile on easy ground at Windsor, confirming that she was rather unlucky in a tempo-dictated affair at Salisbury. Her rating puts her right in the thick of this and she has conditions arguably more in her favour than her market rivals. Time Lock was very good here last year, but had a perfect set-up on quicker ground, while Place of Safety is too short relative to her actual performance level and Mistral Star is a little too exuberant for her own good.

DEFINITIVE has been completely missed in the Rockfel (3.00), a Group 2 that had come up a bit thin this year. Favourite Formal takes in her first stakes race and, good as she’s appeared, I can’t be loading up at that price. Ryan Moore has to ride Ecstatic, but neither she nor Bubbling look right off Aidan’s top shelf, while it’s anyone’s after that. My pick will have come on a ton for a decent enough effort in an Ascot Group 3, when a combination of track position and a steady early pace counted against her. Like that day’s winner Simmering, she finished off really straight and well, screaming for a stiffer test. She’s bred to be good, her full brother’s best form on turf is with cut, and she gets a headgear change.

TASK FORCE has a nice race in him yet and can win the Joel Stakes (3.35). He’s arguably run his two best races here – in the Middle Park and the Guineas – and comes here off a much lighter campaign than most, shaping quite nicely in the Strensall while suggesting both a drop in trip and a stronger pace would suit. Ground is an unknown, but his dam had plenty of top class form on soft, including here.