Nick Luck
Horse Racing Tips: Knightsbridge tipped to win Breeders’ Cup Classic
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck is back with his best bets for day two of the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, featuring the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Saturday, Keeneland
The first race is the Filly & Mar Sprint (5:10pm) and EVANESCENCE is the selection here. hopefully she’ll be quite a nice price as the market is made by the short-price favourite Ways And Means. That favourite, however, has never won outside New York and does appear to be a real Saratoga specialist. What’s more, there’s loads of pace in this race that could scupper the chances of one or two of those closest to her in the betting who are confirmed trailblazers. As such, I am going for a horse who like sto come from a little way off the pace in Evanescence, who is a consistent, tough, likeable performer who, although she has a little to find at first glance, should at least run herself into the frame
COMANCHE BRAVE is quite a strong fancy in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (5:48pm). All eyes will be on the Nunthorpe winner, Bacio, as he bids to follow up in his own backyard. However, unlike at York, he’s likely to be attended much harder for the lead this time and I think the extra half-furlong may not be entirely ideal. That being said, Comanche Brave looks the one to be with. He’s shown versatility this year, ranging from an excellent effort in Hong Kong to ready triumphs in the July Cup and the Flying Five – in both of which he showed enough speed to think that he can not spot the leaders too much ground and provide a really powerful and strong finish. He’s improved all year, gone from strength to strength and can round it off in fine style here.
FURTHER ADO should tale a bit of beating in the Dirt Mile (6:26pm). He was a hopeful for the Classic until earlier this week when the connections decided to take this slightly less demanding option. The cut back to a mile should suit as well give his two most recent effort and the Pensylvania Derby looked a strong race on form and time. He’s evidently extremely effective at this track, even trainer doesn’t believe that is anything more than a coincidence. He must have a very strong chance in what is not a race of great depth.
At domestic prices GIMME A NOTHER might be worth a small each way investment in the Breeders cup Filly & Mare Turf (7:04pm) the EP Taylor winner is a huge price, and drifting any further on the back of some lamentable performances from American based turf horses on Friday. However, Gimme A Nother has already shown very smart form in defeating European challengers in Canada and she may well be at a significant tactical advantage here as a strong stayer at the trip with plenty of natural forward going pace. John Velazquez is sure to make use of that, and she can at least hang on for a piece of the place money. evidently Blue Bolt is going to be a tough filly to crack but she’s parked out in stall 12 she has to go further than she’s ever been before, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her win well, I can watch her do so at those odds.
ENGLISHMAN should be extraordinarily tough to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (7:42pm). He’s had a well-documented foot issue of late and he could be drawn better, but in all honesty, he’s looked the most exciting horse in the United States all season and it’ll be disappointing if he can’t round off the campaign with success. There are one or two feasible each way options in this race one of them could be Nakatomi, who is the old man of the party, but he adores Keeneland, and potential pace meltdown could really suit him.
PUERTO RICO might be an interesting shout in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (8:20pm). His claims are nowhere near as obvious as those of Notable Speech, but he is cycling to form at the right time, posted something close to a career best in the Prix de la Foret and would probably have won that race and beaten True Love who is about half his price if he’d had anything like a decent trip. He was forced wide pretty much all the way round, which over seven furlongs at Longchamp is disaster. He should appreciate the step up to a mile, and even though he’s parked in store 14, Ryan Moore is more than capable of turning a bad draw into a good one against this group of riders, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him run another bold race particularly as the ground is not that quick.
REGALED is an interesting choice to upset the apple cart in the Distaff (8:58pm). She was third in the race last year at big odds and she can outrun her price again. In this race 12 months ago, she was a long way off the pace, but the pace was not contested enough really to allow her a proper chance to win. I think there’s the likelihood of a stronger gallop this time which should suit her, and she comes into the race arguably in better form than she did 12 months ago. So, albeit Nitrogen has got magnificent form this season and Fully Subscribed has been mopping up in New York, this looks a good opportunity for Regaled to get some valuable place money in another Breeders’ Cup at the very least.
ETHICAL DIAMOND gets the vote to make it back-to-back wins in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (9:36pm). He’s been almost forgotten about in the betting in the lead up to this race, with the assumption appearing to be that he fell in somehow last year. Granted, the pace was too strong at Del Mar 12 months ago, but he was stretching right away at the end and did so in track record time. He’s clearly very effective around these turning tracks and he’s been building towards a peak effort his last three starts, incrementally a little better each time. The trainer seems confident of a big run whilst last year he was none the wiser, and I think there should be just enough pace on to allow him in here hoping that Johanna Walsh, Bay City Roller, and Benvenuto Cellini get on with it.
KNIGHTSBRIDGE is at my pick in what looks a terrific edition of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (10:26pm). With Magnitude not running, it gives him slightly less pace pressure up front, albeit Napoleon Solo is likely to go forward from an outside gate. The selection is essentially the speed of the speed, and he’s completely unexposed at this distance. Now, there are those who think that his finishing in the Pacific Classic wasn’t great, and there are those who think the form wasn’t great, and they’ve got reasonable points. However, he did win by over 6 lengths and in a very solid time too – it wouldn’t surprise me, in this smallish field, to see him build up a bit of a head of steam and be quite a tough nut to crack. Sovereignty and Forever Young will come roaring at him, and they may well and just blow by, but I think at the likely odds, and with Magnitude and non-runner, Knightsbridge is now a much more interesting proposition.
