Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Pointing towards a winner

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck casts his expert eye over the best of the racing at Leopardstown and Limerick on Thursday 28th December. 

Thursday, Leopardstown

CONFLATED is overpriced at 16/1 and can at least hit the frame in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown on Thursday (2.25pm). He seems to come alive here, and loves the relatively decent ground on the chase course. As such, he ran a terrific race at Down Royal under today’s jockey, despite constantly edging out to his left. He has shown time and again how capable he is at the highest level, yet he rarely captures the betting public’s imagination. At current odds, he warrants serious consideration each way.

IRISH POINT might want the ground on the hurdles track a little tighter, but is the horse that makes most appeal in the Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle (1.50pm) at 6/4. He is entirely unexposed at this distance, but gives every indication this is what he wants. Home by The Lee and Asterion Forlonge, talented though they are, would not be the most reliable purveyors of your cash, so the talented improver is given the nod under Jack Kennedy.

Thursday, Limerick

AMERICAN MIKE might be more of a match for Gaelic Warrior than the market suggests in the Grade One at Limerick (2.05pm). This is not to decry the favourite – who was occasionally breathtaking on his chase debut – but simply to assert that the gap in talent between the two is not that big. The physique of American Mike suggests he’s simply been marking time the last two season (yet still showed some really smart form), and I loved his zest for the job when beating more than one smart rival on his own chasing bow. This trip looks ideal. 5/1.