Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Newbury, Newmarket and the Preakness 

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck returns to preview a busy Saturday of action, with Group One action on Lockinge Stakes Day at Newbury, as well as competitive action from Newmarket before looking ahead to the G1 Preakness Stakes at Laurel Park. 

Newbury, Saturday

The first race at Newbury on ITV is the Aston Park Stakes (1:25pm). Arabian Force is the horse that I will be backing here. Now, it’s clear that Kalpana will be a tough nut to crack but she’s odds on and must concede a penalty and that brings this field quite close to her. The selection has a run under his belt, it was a messily run race in France which was tempo dictated and he will be much better with a stronger gallop here with Liberty Lane and West Wind Blows, a good pace looks guaranteed. He’s had relatively few chances to race at a mile-and-a-half in a strongly run race, which he gets here, and he’s open to further progression for a yard that continues in great form.

The Childwickbury Stud Fillies’ Stakes is next (2:00pm). Golden Orbit is the pick here, she’s not a big price, but she was very taking on debut at Newmarket last year in a race that has worked out well. Ralph Beckett’s very long in this division; he could have about five fillies in Oaks contention at present and he clearly believes that this is the best of them based on his comments yesterday. Her pedigree suggests that she should improve significantly this year make her a compelling proposition here.

Sahlan is my pick in the Lockinge Stakes (2:35pm), I think he has been overpriced all week. The conditions are ideal for him over a straight mile on nice ground. He won a Group One aged three despite significant inexperience, and he’s had plenty more experience since then. His run behind Notable Speech in the Breeders’ Cup Mile was a really creditable one, he could’ve easily finished a good second with a slightly clearer run if ridden closer to the pace. Notable Speech received an absolute peach of a ride from William Buick that day, that sort of plays into Notable Speech’s hands whereas this sort of test should suit Sahlan better and there shouldn’t be such a discrepancy in the prices, it’s Sahlan for me.

The Carnarvon Stakes (3:10pm) is a tricky contest, and I will be having two bets in the race. The first of those is Albert Einstein, who’s drifted to a good price. Many will be out to get him beat because he’s a bit of a hype horse but dropping him to six furlongs and taking the hood off suggests that a big performance could be forthcoming. I actually thought he ran well in the Greenham, whilst his final effort was becalmed, but he drops to a distance where he should be very comfortable, and I think that we will see the benefit of his two runs today. One I’m keeping onside at a big price is Egoli. He was very impressive at Newbury last year when following up from York, he absolutely smashed up Song Of The Clyde. It didn’t quite happen for him after that but he’s since been gelded. He’s held in high regard and should be better off at three and I can see a big performance here at huge price.

Tierra Del Torro looks like one of the narrow possibilities in the London Gold Cup (3:45pm); he gets a narrow vote at the prices for me. He looks nicely treated judged on his three runs last year, latterly when finishing well over the mile. Pedigree and profile suggest that this distance is going to be bring about significant improvement and I’m expecting a bold show this afternoon. Interestingly, he is in the same ownership broadly as the favourite Lost Boys here, who was given a big shout by David Menuisier earlier in the week, so it will be interesting to monitor the market between those two.

Newmarket, Saturday

In the 14:50 at Newmarket, it sort of goes against the grain tipping a horse who’s been off for two years, but Shah must be well handicapped. He must be well handicapped on what he showed as a two-year-old. He was a good second in the maiden at York and had the misfortune to run into Windlord.

I know how highly regarded he is by George Boughey at the time. He’s clearly had a load of problems and has had wind surgery as well. But if he’s back in anything like the sort of form he showed then, this sort of mark, in this sort of race – which is a very cosy grade for him – ought to be within his compass, and he’s a double-figure price. So, I’m prepared to take the chance that he’s straight enough. Shah for me at Newmarket.

I thought Rebel Path was interesting in the 15:27 at Newmarket. He won this race last year off a mark 2lb higher than the one he runs from today. He’s had a couple of quiet runs this year, with his mark slipping below last year’s winning figure, and they’re taking another 7lb off with a handy apprentice, which suggests a measure of intent.

There are plenty of horses here with ifs and buts attached to them, but I thought there was enough encouragement – particularly in his most recent run – to suggest he isn’t a complete back number, and I’d expect a revival today.

Laurel Park, Sunday

It’s not possible for a horse to win the Triple Crown this year, but it’s still possible for a jockey to do so; and I think Jose Ortiz, who won the Kentucky Derby on Golden Tempo, can repeat the dose here, albeit on a different horse in Chip Honcho. Now, Chip Honcho missed the Kentucky Derby because his trainer, Steve Asmussen, felt that his sensitive disposition wouldn’t be suited to a crowd of 150,000 people. Well, there’s only going to be 4,000 at Laurel Park this evening and this is a horse who has got one piece of form that entitles him to maximum respect. And that was when he split Paladin and Golden Tempo earlier in the season.

Last time, he possibly just raced a little aggressively, but he’s had the pause that refreshes since then. And I think coming here off that little break, you’ll see him return to his best. And that best should nearly be good enough in this field. They’re going to go very hard from the off, there’s pace to the inside Taj Mahal. There’s pace right on the outside as well in Pretty Boy Miah. And I think they’ll drive on quite hard, and it should enable Chip Honcho to get a perfect, fairly untroubled stalking trip from a good draw. He’s representing top connections and he’s a horse that has got a CV thus far to warrant him a significant degree of respect. Chip Honcho is my pick in the 151st edition of the Preakness Stakes.