Nick Luck’s Blog: Saturday winners? What A Question!

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck casts his expert eye over the major races on Saturday’s Northumberland Plate card from Newcastle, as well as a strong card from Newmarket.

Newcastle, Saturday

BATAL DUBAI is the selection in the first race at Newcastle (12.20pm) at 11/2. He’s won at this course before, so we know he handles the surface and he made a reasonably promising comeback at Windsor last time, particularly as he absolutely blew the start and made some quite taking ground later in the race. Lack of fitness told in the end but, with that race under his belt, he should be spot on in a race that doesn’t have a huge amount of depth.

MOSTLY SUNNY looks the pick in the Northumberland Vase Handicap (1.30pm) at 15/2. This is a horse trained by Heather Main who is quietly having a pretty good season, and her horses are holding their form well. I thought this horse ran his most appealing race on this track over this distance at the back end of last year, winning really quite easily. Admittedly, this is stronger, but he comes here in good form after an excellent effort at Goodwood last time when just beaten by a well-handicapped horse and I can see him running a bold race.

OMNISCIENT is a surprisingly big price at 10/1 in the Northumberland Plate (2.05pm). Granted he lacks a bit of experience, but clearly this has been the target for a stable that’s had success in races like this. He has all-weather form and, not only that, has been kept ahead of the handicapper by racing significantly shy of this trip. It is a bit of a gamble to get stuck into a horse who’s having his first run over two miles, but it looks worth having a go at it on pedigree as he’s a half-brother to the very smart stayer, Dashing Willoughby, who got every inch of the two miles and more. With that in mind, I think he could be an extremely well-treated horse and double figure odds have to be taken on the chance that he could improve massively for the step up in trip.

Newmarket, Saturday

WHAT A QUESTION looks the ideal type for the Empress Fillies’ Stakes (12.40pm) at 9/2. Frankly, any filly that can do what she did first time out with her pedigree must be well above average and she’s bred to get better with time and, maybe, with distance. She really won very easily at Goodwood and the market spoke quite favourably for her as well. I don’t think she’s too bad a price, I think she has achieved as much as the favourite and I can see her making a bold bid from the front end.

I like PHANTOM FLIGHT in the Fred Archer (1.15pm) at 6/1. The trip’s going to be more suitable and he got slightly done tactically in a muddling race at Goodwood last time, which was also his first run after quite a long absence. I still thought he came home nicely at the end, and I’ll be keeping faith in him. There’s enough doubt about those at the top of the market, who either haven’t been seen for a while or aren’t in great form or, in Al Aasy’s case, are just a really hard horse to get right. With that in mind, Phantom Flight gets the nod in a trappy race.

I’ve got to go for old friend POGO in the Criterion Stakes (1.50pm) at 3/1, as it’s a race that he absolutely loves. I think there are sound reasons for him this time, and he doesn’t have to carry the penalty that he once did this time around. I didn’t think he ran too badly in the Queen Anne at Ascot, particularly as he made his ground out on the flank, which wasn’t a great place to be, and he actually made the ground up quite stylishly. Back to forcing tactics, with a strong possibility of not getting that much company on the front end he might well be able to draw the sting out of one or two and considering his main market rival Aldaary hasn’t run for a while, he might just have too much in the way of race fitness for him.