Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Northumberland Plate Day 2026 Tips
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews action from Newcastle and York on Northumberland Plate Day.
Saturday, Newcastle
Bobby Bennu is the pick to win the opening ITV race (1.40pm) on Northumberland Plate Day at Newcastle. He’s just had the one start this season, which was when behind today’s market rival Supido at Chester. He was worst drawn on that occasion, however, and with that run under his belt, he looks set to improve and the stable continues to go well.
Marvelman looks like a horse to go well in the Chipchase (2.10pm). He ran poorly last time and didn’t cut much ice when upped in grade at the back end of last year. But, in truth, this is a horse who hasn’t had the conditions that he requires to be seen to best effect and does have those conditions for the first time this afternoon.
Shrimp Shady hasn’t exactly been hiding his light under a bushel, but he’s a horse who can continue to improve and take the Northumberland Vase (2.40pm), the consolation race for the Plate. Two things are guaranteed here. One is an ability to handle this surface. Second is his ability to stay this trip, and I can see him being reasonably prominently ridden here. I thought he was valued for a good bit more than the winning margin at Chester. I don’t think the handicapper has been over-harsh and would actually be a reasonable fancy if he’d got into the Plate.
I thought Kirchner was the each-way value against the heavy favourite Circus Of Rome in the Northumberland Plate (3.15pm). Circus Of Rome’s claims are there for everybody to see – he loves this synthetic surface and carries maximum confidence from connections. But I thought Kirchner was sort of lurking near the foot of the weights and was still relatively unexposed over a trip. It’s early days for his new stable, who had a very good Royal Ascot and continue to go extremely well. I like the booking of Cieren Fallon. The draw is not a disaster and there’s quite a bit of upside to him.
Tuco Salamanca is my pick in the 3.45pm. He’s got a formidable opponent here in Power Fizz, but he has looked a bit of a synthetic freak the times that he’s run on it. The booking of William Buick looks significant and he was desperately unlucky not to win a really big race here earlier in the season. The handicapper hasn’t really been able to exact the sort of revenge that he might have done and he ought to regain the winning thread. I didn’t think his run at York was too bad last time either.
Saturday, York
Andesite can win the first (1.55pm) of three competitive races at York on ITV on Saturday afternoon. Roger Fell’s horse hasn’t won since a very promising debut but is warming to his task slowly but surely this season and was pretty unlucky to run into a very promising horse last time. There is nothing as well handicapped as that horse in this field, nor is there anything of that calibre. Granted a pace to run at, which I think he’ll get, he ought to go very close and is a perfectly reasonable each-way price at the time of writing.
I’m going to have a stab at Our Cody in the Dash (2.25pm) at York. She ran above herself at big odds in the Listed Scurry Stakes at Sandown and there’d be an immediate temptation to believe that may have flattered her. It seems the handicapper takes that view as he’s only popped her up one pound, but he may rue that decision because she was actually very unlucky not to go very close to winning that race – locked up, finding all sorts of trouble and almost finishing on the bridle. A replication of that at a track where she showed some pretty good form to finish a decent staying on fifth in the Roses Stakes last year will see her firmly in the mix.
Qirat might represent a little bit of value in the Criterion Stakes (2.58pm), which is an automatic qualifier for the City Of York, in which he was fifth last year behind today’s favourite Never So Brave. While there aren’t obvious reasons why he should turn that form round, Never So Brave hasn’t run terribly well in either of his starts this season, and Qirat gets his conditions for the first time since that race. His seven furlong record is excellent, notwithstanding the fact that he won the Sussex Stakes over a mile. And it could just be that he gets the run of the race here in the first-time tongue tie. Clearly, Sabre Strike is a horse with a massive reputation and he ran okay at Ascot last week, but it is a quick turnaround and that would temper enthusiasm at cramped odds. At the prices as they stand, Qirat represents a bit of value.
