Nick Luck’s NRMB ante-post preview: I’d Love Envoi to win the Mares’ Hurdle

William Hill were brisk from the blocks in putting up Non-Runner Money Back markets for the Festival this year and – while nobody said the traders were leaving a lot of meat on the bones for us – yours truly has been scavenging to try to make the most of the concession over the next few days.

I’ll kick off in the Supreme with HIGH DEFINITION – just on raw ability, this Group One Flat horse is too big at 14/1. Certainly, he should be shorter than everything, with the possible exception of the favourite and Marine Nationale. Consider this, though; it’s not completely impossible Facile Vega goes to the Ballymore, given the Mullins balls-in-the-air factor, and consider also that High Definition isn’t really a bigger price across the board without the concession. If he builds on his hurdling debut at the Dublin Festival, he’ll be half the price. If not, he probably won’t run. This looks a no-brainer.

Back HIGH DEFINITION each-way NRMB with William Hill for the Supreme Novices’ at 14/1.

In the novice chase category, I am very keen to take advantage of the concession with EL FABIOLO. He could run in either the Arkle or the Turners, and I would back him in both now. Here’s my logic: in the Arkle, he’s very close to a non-concession price and has shown enough to suggest to me that he can give Jonbon a race. In the Turners, he would face a less daunting task and could be really short on the day if he is the Mullins number one.

Back EL FABIOLO win only NRMB with William Hill for the Arkle at 9/2 and for the Turners at 5/1.

The easiest recommendation of the whole Festival is LOVE ENVOI. I think she is the most likely winner of the Mares’ Hurdle, with or without Marie’s Rock, and she is essentially the same price across the board. Assuming she wins again at Warwick, she’ll contract in price again, irrespective of what she beats. What makes the concessionary play appealing is that connections have half-toyed with the idea of the Champion Hurdle, so a little insurance is no bad thing.

Back LOVE ENVOI to win only NRMB with William Hill for the Mares’ Hurdle at 4/1.

Truth be told, I don’t have a really strong feeling as to whether THE REAL WHACKER is just that, or whether things have just dropped nicely for him so far. But what I do know is that he is a cracking jumper, can clearly slide round this track on rails and might just be in a thin division of staying novices in the Brown Advisory. With every chance Willie and Patrick swerve this with Gaillard du Mesnil (and, even if they don’t, you’re not getting much of a price for this NRMB) the TRW price looks pretty fair relative to what’s available elsewhere, and I think the announcement in the week about likely multiple entries might have blurred the oddsmakers’ focus here. This is the obvious race.

Back THE REAL WHACKER win only NRMB with William Hill for the Brown Advisory at 7/1.

We’ve short memories in this game, and it does admittedly feel like an eternity since ENCANTO BRUNO bolted up in a bumper at Cheltenham’s October meeting. It might be worth reminding ourselves that the well-held second is now a really smart dual winning hurdler, while the fourth and fifth are at least useful. Trainer John McConnell – who has trained a bucket load of decent winners – said after that “a nice bumper after a break in the spring would be the target”. Now consider that the front of the market comprises two horses that fought out a pretty poxy five-runner race last time and a mare that has never run against geldings, and you’re scratching around. I’ve no idea if this lad will make it to the Festival, but you’ll get your money back if he doesn’t.

Back ENCANTO BRUNO each way NRMB with William Hill for the Champion Bumper at 20/1.

With Allaho the most contentious Willie/won’t he horse at the front of any Festival market, William Hill clearly have to duck for cover in the NRMB market. As such, that still leaves a little juice in the price of the only horse that looks vaguely solid. Fakir d’Oudairies missed the race last year because connections felt that he couldn’t beat Allaho, but he surely won’t miss out this year if there are a few doubts about the favourite. And, if Allaho doesn’t run, I’m sure as I can be that he can beat everything else. The possibility that he dodges for Aintree again makes a point or two off the price an acceptable trade-off. And the paucity of likely runners at the front of this confused market would encourage a bit of each way if you can.

Back FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES each way NRMB with William Hill for the Ryanair at 8/1.