Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Redcar to Longchamp and everything in between
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews this weekend’s racing from Newmarket, Ascot, Redcar, and Longchamp.
Saturday, Newmarket
VELOCIRAPTOR is my each-way selection in the opening race (1:00pm). Night In Vegas has been holding all before him in similar contests lately, but he may not hold his form over this extra distance, given how much speed he’s shown. The same goes for his old adversary Zigazig Ah, who hit the front a little too soon at Goodwood and just got out-stayed. Velociraptor, by contrast, will appreciate dropping back from a mile to a distance where he looked very effective on his first two starts. His debut behind the very useful Haffner was notable, he made short work of his opposition at Chester, and he appeared not quite at his best at Salisbury last time.
EVOLUTIONIST is a sporting play in the Sun Chariot Stakes (1:35pm). Blue Bolt is a very tough nut at this level and will be an extremely short price. But if you’re after one for forecast purposes, an each-way play for two places, or a small win bet on a filly at a big price, this is the one I think will outrun her odds. My case rests partly on Blue Bolt being unlikely to maintain such a high level of form much longer, given how long she’s been on the go. More persuasively, Evolutionist’s form at the Rowley Mile is really good, with two starts in Group One company in the Fillies’ Mile and the 1000 Guineas. I think there are valid excuses for her last two starts, and if she comes back to that sort of form, she can run a bold race.
TOPTEAM looks a solid each-way play for Andrew Balding and Colin Keane in the 1m4f Handicap (2:10pm). I’ve seen more competitive editions of this race. He ran really well to finish second in a similar contest back at the Guineas meeting, and he can now race off a lower mark because he hasn’t had his conditions since, including twice on the All-Weather. Back on suitable turf over a distance that is spot on, with a top rider booked, he ought to give a good account at double-figure odds.
Saturday, Ascot
MIDNIGHT TANGO gets the vote in the October Stakes (1:15pm). This filly has run well on every visit to the track, in the Princess Margaret last year and then in the Commonwealth Cup trial, which she nearly won. She also ran perfectly respectably in the Commonwealth Cup itself, but for the fact that she inexplicably came right over to an unfavoured part of the track while the race was unfolding elsewhere. She looks to me like she’s been crying out for a straight seven furlongs for some time, and I can see her building on an already impressive track record.
FIRST INSTINCT might be the play in the Rous Stakes (1:50pm). She ran behind Shagraan at Newbury last time, but it would have been much closer with a clear run. That race was dominated by the very pacey Miss Yechance, who will be my fancy in the Prix de l’Abbaye. First Instinct was right up against it given her natural run style, but I think this track, something to aim at, and the uphill finish will be much more to her liking. The ground has stayed okay for her, and I can see her giving it a bold go, particularly because one or two at the top of the market have had harder races lately on much softer ground.
ROYAL POWER is a token choice in the Cumberland Lodge (2:25pm). I suspect none of these horses want the prevailing going unless there’s quite a bit of rain. Tenability is the most impressive horse in the race, but I’m convinced he wants a bit more cut in the ground. Al Aasy has had a hundred goes at this without winning it, and while he’s an admirable horse, he certainly isn’t getting any better. The selection might still have some upside. He’s lightly raced, and we haven’t seen him since Meydan in the spring, where he didn’t disgrace himself at all in the Sheema Classic. That sort of run puts him in with a fairly decent chance on these terms, and I’m going to take a chance that he’s fit and ready off a break.
PRINCE OF INDIA looks the straight-bat selection in the Bengough Stakes (3:00pm). He comes here in rude health after an excellent second in the Hungerford and a good Listed win last time. I’m not quite sure why cheekpieces need to go on, but if they bring another pound or two of improvement, so much the better. Going conditions will be no barrier to success. The main market rival, Division, is becoming frustrated and looks a tricky ride, and the rest of the opposition don’t look like six-furlong horses to me.
HAWKSBILL has to step up and be counted in the Challenge Cup (3:35pm), and at a huge price too. There are plenty of exciting, improving, potential Stakes horses in this race, but don’t underestimate this horse’s talent. It’s just a question of when he’ll show it all. Last time at Ayr, on ground that was far too soft for him, he travelled like a dream but didn’t really pick up. I think he needs a race to collapse around him, and with a lot of pace on here that’s a real possibility. I always thought seven furlongs at Ascot in the right conditions was what he wanted, and with him running into some genuinely decent form, this could be the day he catches everybody out.
Saturday, Redcar
MYESME is my selection in the William Hill Two Year Old Trophy (3:20pm). On the form book, Revels and Satellite Of Love have achieved more than she has so far, but Myesme couldn’t have been more impressive last time out, trouncing a horse already rated 88 that had shown useful form for Richard and Peter Fahey. Several things point to her being almost certainly a minor Stakes-class horse: her relative inexperience, the fact that she dwelt at the start and gave herself a bit too much to do, and the good time the race was run in. I don’t think there’s an awful lot between her and the market leaders. She’s a perfectly decent price, has been targeted at this race for a long time, and comes from an excellent yard that remains in form.
ELARAK has been a frustrating horse, but this is the perfect set-up for him in the Guisborough Stakes (3:55pm). There’s loads of speed on in this race, including among the market leaders, and they’ll really burn it up. Mikey Sheehy is catching lots of attention riding good, well-judged races, including in last week’s Cambridgeshire. I can see him timing this to a tee on Elarak, and this is his big chance.
Sunday, Longchamp
SPIRIT TANGO is the each-way selection in the Prix Marcel Boussac (12:31pm) for Ralph Beckett and Oisin Murphy. She thrashed Al Samsama in a small field on heavy ground at Goodwood. Al Samsama subsequently bolted up in a good-looking Nursery at Newmarket and is considered a possibility for next year’s Nell Gwyn by Richard Hughes. Spirit Tango marmalised her at Goodwood, and Ralph Beckett is quite long in this division this season. In a far from vintage edition of this race, she strikes me as way too big a price.
MAN’S BEST FRIEND is the one I like in the Jean-Luc Lagardere (1:09pm). This will be a much more suitable test than the Morny, which was run on ground he didn’t like and turned into a test of raw speed. Out of a Galileo mare, there are plenty of stayers in his pedigree, and I suspect Ryan Moore will make plenty of use of him in a race where it’s not obvious who will make the running. I wasn’t massively impressed by Avec Toi’s trial run for this race. Folsom Blues is a pretty short price given he’s a candidate to bounce off a huge effort last time. The one I’d be most frightened of is the filly Amusingly, who will be trying to make use of her rather speedy pedigree rather than going for the Marcel Boussac. I think he’ll get a much bolder ride from Ryan Moore, and he might reward the decision to run him over further on faster ground.
MISS YECHANCE is the pick in the Prix de l’Abbaye (1:47pm). She was an inspired supplementary entry by Karl Burke, having posted a big figure at York and then backed it up with her first Stakes win at Newbury, where she beat a very representative field. She’ll have to improve that much again to run a big race here, but this race tends to favour brazen speed, which is what she’s got. With no real rain forecast, that will suit. Of the horses that like to race prominently, she’s probably got the best of the draw, and with all the allowances she can give Jack Nicholls his biggest win.
DARYZ can be the first back-to-back winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3:05pm) since Enable. He has everything for this race: a turn of foot better than anybody else’s, the staying power he showed in more attritional conditions last year, just about the best of the draw, the potential for the best tactical set-up, and a perfect preparation. You could argue that around 7/4 is a perfectly reasonable price. It’s no massive surprise that Kalpana is second favourite, with outstanding form this season and a less tough campaign than most. These aren’t particularly adventurous suggestions, but I think they stand clear of the others at this stage.
CANKOURA is a big enough price to go close in the Prix de l’Opera (3:50pm). Not many from this stable will be double-figure odds in Group One races over the weekend, and this one shouldn’t be. She should have won a nice race at Saratoga earlier in the year but had no luck, and the horse that finished behind her has just come back to win at the top level this week. Her last run can be readily excused on account of the ground. As long as she doesn’t get too far back in this race, I think she can take a hand at a nice each-way price.
PUERTO RICO might be one out of the back of the hand in the Prix de la Foret (4:25pm). He was a very good two-year-old who won a brace of Group Ones, and his form wasn’t all on soft ground. He won a good edition of the Champagne Stakes on good ground. This season has been a write-off partly because he was used for a good gallop at Ascot and Goodwood and so compromised his own chances. Either side of that, he ran more than respectably in the French Guineas and showed his first bit of form since the spring in the City Of York. He’s got to step forward here, but both his visits to Longchamp have been very creditable and he can be ridden with no pressure. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t run much better, and I think this could be right for a bit of a surprise.
