Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Follow me off the Kalif with Berlais

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck looks over a super Saturday of racing with action from Sandown, Musselburgh, and the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival from Leopardstown.

Sandown, Saturday

KALIF D’AIRY is a tentative opening shot on ITV’s Sandown card on Saturday (1:25pm). He’s yet to win, but it’s early days and the money that’s been down the last twice suggests connections think it’s not too far away. And, in fairness, he’s been a bit unlucky to run into very well-treated rivals on both occasions. I’m not sure anything is in that category here, for all that he’s up in class, and he’s one of the few that should love the ground.

DR T J ECKLEBURG is capable of springing a minor surprise in the two-mile handicap chase (2:00pm). He’s proven in really nasty conditions, is a strong finisher at this trip, and receives huge amounts of weight from largely out-of-form or badly handicapped rivals. Etalon has obvious claims, but might be waiting for a step up in trip, while neither Martator nor Gunsight Ridge raised any sort of effort last time.

KALIF DU BERLAIS looks a shade underestimated in the Scilly Isles (2:35pm). It’s not a given that he wants the extra distance, but everything about the way he races suggests it will suit, and he almost certainly appreciates plenty of cut in the ground. He comes out best at the weights on official ratings, and essentially has a very sound jumping technique which, coupled with his running style, should make him very effective here.

RED DIRT ROAD can continue to progress in the staying handicap hurdle (3:07pm). He’s always had a bit of profile since defeating Corbetts Cross in a point-to-point, but his rise has been steady rather than spectacular. That said, he goes well on a stiff, right-handed track, and was really quite impressive at Aintree last time (well beaten third has won good race at Haydock since). He may have been helped by reduced visibility there too in that he’s only gone up  five pounds.

EDEN DU HOUX is a possibility at sizable odds in the Masters Chase (3:42pm). He’s always been dangerous off this sort of mark at this level, and he actually ran quite well against two young improvers last time over what now looks an inadequate trip. He’s had his wind tidied up, which had an immediate effect last time it was done, and this test will be much more suitable.

Musselburgh, Saturday

STATIC looks the safest option in the Scottish Triumph at Musselburgh (1:42pm). Stacking up the British, Irish and French form is almost impossible, so it may be best to eat with what we know, which is that the selection is an honest, pace-pushing type, who will love the return to a sharp track and decent ground. He’ll make a bold bid from the front and could take a bit of catching.

AFADIL is a pretty obvious choice in the Scottish County (2:17pm). He won the 4yo race here two years ago before winning this off a higher mark last year. Connections have managed to fashion him down 10 pounds this season despite two efforts that suggest no serious deterioration and, with everything spot-on, he should run a huge race again.

MARBLE SANDS looks the one in the Scottish Champion Chase (2:50pm). He’s only just shy of being a very high-class horse, and this company holds no fears for him. His only run here resulted in a stylish victory, he comes here in excellent form, and he’s really not badly treated.

Leopardstown, Saturday

FACT TO FILE can win the Irish Gold Cup en route to repeating the dose in the Cheltenham equivalent (3:30pm). Although this is a fortress for the mighty Galopin Des Champs, there is scant likelihood that he can do better than his brilliant performance at Christmas, nor that he will get such a tepid time of it up front. By contrast, the selection is fully entitled to keep progressing given his relative inexperience in senior company, will likely settle much better knowing how his stable manage such issues, and will appreciate the ground a shade softer. I have no qualms about his ability to stay very well, and feel that the price disparity between the big two is exaggerated.