Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Scottish National and Newbury Classic Trials Tips

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Ayr’s Scottish National Day and Newbury’s Classic Trials card.

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Saturday, Ayr

ASTA LA PASTA can make it two wins in as many days in the TV opener at Ayr on what is set to be an intriguing Skelton/Mullins head-to head (1.10). Leg one can go to Skelton’s apparent second choice, who won a much weaker race on Friday afternoon, but confirmed his wellbeing and barely came out of a canter. Theinval and many others have run well in both races in the past, and the drier the ground, the greater the chance that the selection can simply gallop his rivals into submission.

LOUGHGLYNN looks a likely one for Mullins to come right back in the next (1.43). He’s had some really promising efforts to his name – a Graded hurdles defeat of Stellar Story for one – and has been quietly progressive in a light campaign this year. He arrives here fresh for a rider who knows him well and, although the handicapper has him apparently where he wants him, there has always been the suspicion that he is capable of better.

ETHICAL DIAMOND is surely only a breath away from posting a really smart effort over hurdles (2.15), and the Scottish Champion Hurdle looks an ideal opportunity. He races off the same mark as his County Hurdle fourth, has no Kargese or Absurde to worry about here, and has had a pretty easy time of it this year, so should remain fresh. His best effort on the Flat came when appearing not to quite get home over 12 furlongs at Royal Ascot, so this should suit really well. He might do this easily.

ARMED AND FABULOUS can make it a rapid treble for Closutton (2.55). She looked a half decent prospect for Mags Mullins in bumpers – certainly one who would ultimately be at least as good as this mark over hurdles. So it shouldn’t have come as a surprise that she made short work of a mezzanine field of UK mares at Newcastle. What might have been more surprising was the manner of the runner-up’s subsequent victory, again suggesting this mark might underestimate the selection. What is more, the best horse in the pedigree – Goulanes – was a strong stayer, so she might improve a ton for the big step up in trip.

MAGNA SAM is a spot of value to at least get in amongst it in the Scottish National, even if halting the juggernaut maybe asking too much (3.35). William Hill pay first six places here online, and I’m confident of a return with this longshot. To my eye, he should have gone very close to winning this two years ago under very similar conditions, but got a view of the front going best too far out and was collared late After a wind-op, he’s had exactly the same prep this time, was even more impressive at Musselburgh in first time cheekpieces, and races off a lower mark than in 2023.

Saturday, Newbury

BELLUM JUSTUM appeals as the likeliest winner of the John Porter at Newbury (1.25). Although Sunway achieved the most of last season’s three-year-olds, his trainer’s MO suggests his form will build through the season. As such, I prefer the selection, who finished in front of Ancient Wisdom in the Derby (despite not being 100%), and then went on to show some very smart form, notably behind Jan Brueghel at Goodwood. This course and distance look perfect for him, and he should do better still this year.

FORMAL is another Balding runner that can go well in the Fred Darling (2.00). The trainer will be very keen to make a big impression with this ex-Stoute filly for Cheveley Park, and – out of a Group One winner – she should do well this year, having shown lots of promise as a juvenile. Most importantly for this exercise, she might get a perfect trip here, as the pace (California Dreamer and Heavens Gate) strongly suggests the race will unfold on the far side, and the selection should get an ideal tow in. Time for Sandals – drawn this side – is another that looks sure to run a big race if she stays seven furlongs.

RASHABAR might have been one of the more underrated colts last year, and can get his season off to a good start in the Greenham (2.35). 80/1 when winning a Coventry that worked out better than everyone thought, he was arguably a bit unlucky not to win two Group Ones, and looked to improve for seven furlongs. He’s a bona fide Guineas contender who wants the sun to keep shining, and looks a perfectly good price given what he’s achieved.

DRAGON LEADER is a bit of a wild one in the Spring Cup (3.12). He was a very good two-year-old, with the pick of his efforts suggesting he was probably a future miler rather than a sprinter. That didn’t materialise last year, but he was running creditably even if not really finishing. I’m hoping the triple whammy of gelding, wind-op and a further drop in the weights enables his talent to shine through again. I would expect him to be up there early, perhaps a little away from rivals given his draw, and wouldn’t be surprised to see him keep rolling.