Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Bay can Spring into the lead

Saturday, Cheltenham

ALAPHILIPPE might be the bet in a trappy novices chase that kicks off Cheltenham’s Saturday ITV card (1.45pm). Although well beaten by Good Risk At All at Carlisle, that was the selection’s first run in an age, and he clearly needs this step up in trip. He’s run really well at two Festivals, and looks as though he’s going to get the sort of stamina test that is required, with neither Mister Coffey nor Weveallbeencaught likely to be ridden for a turn of foot. 5/1.

UNEXPECTED PARTY would be an entirely feasible winner of a very hot Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20pm) at 11/2. He clearly has little to find on Stage Star and Notlongtillmay on their Festival running, particularly as those horses were best placed to take advantage of a tempo-led affair. You can bet that this will be run at a much more spicy pace with The Real Whacker in attendance and that, plus easing ground, will play nicely for the selection, who looked to have come forward again on his comeback. Fugitif may be next best.

COME ON TEDDY is risky but tempting at 12/1 in the three mile hurdle (2.55pm). Smart a couple of years back over hurdles (Pertemps third off higher mark), and then fences (laid out for a Kim Muir and went well until injury intervened), he is reintroduced both off a fair mark and in realistic company to think he can figure if he’s straight enough. Considering how well he has run fresh in the past, the risk is worth taking at these odds.

SPRINGWELL BAY could make up into a proper horse this year, and if that’s the case, he needs to be winning today (3.30pm). I was impressed with his demolition of a decent field at Ascot (129 rated runner-up makes him look well handicapped here), and similarly taken at Wetherby. He ran perfectly well without luck in the Grade One at Aintree, and this sort of test at this trip looks spot-on. Big player at 15/8.

Saturday, Lingfield

FOXES TALES could be the answer to Lingfield’s Churchill Stakes (2.36pm). He’s not a horse I love, nor is he the most consistent, but he is quite effective on this surface and could get the run of the race in potentially tactical affair. 10/3.

TACARIB BAY still looks a shade big to win the Golden Rose Stakes (3.11pm) at 17/2. He’s always been decent, but might just have been running over the wrong trip all his life judged on his fluent win at Newcastle last week over Sense of Duty. I don’t think this is that much tougher and, although the track is sharper and he’ll want a gallop on, the old timers should ensure they go a decent enough clip.