Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Follow the Pied Piper to Punchestown

Saturday, Haydock

LUTTRELL LAD gets the vote at 17/2 in a super-tricky TV opener at Haydock on Saturday (1.15pm). He hasn’t always been the easiest to predict, but his record under genuinely soft or heavy conditions bears the closest scrutiny, and he was right on point when last seen in the summer. He’s run well for a break before, and new connections seem to have his measure. Expect another bold bid.

GREY DAWNING can outrun his rating in the Graduation Chase (1.50). He looked a really nice prospect last year, when the pick of his efforts was a sound beating of the smart Ginny’s Destiny at Warwick. His chase debut was pretty encouraging, particularly given the extent to which his trainer’s horses are coming on for a run. Apple Away is unlikely to be fully revved for this seasonal debut, while Gaillard du Mesnil is at his minimum distance here on a sharpish track.

LORD SNOOTIE is just the type that his trainer enjoys, and he can go very close in the valuable staying hurdle (2.20pm) at 7/1. He ran a superb race over nearly this trip at Punchestown and a repeat from just two pounds higher would see him go very close. Deep ground seems to suit particularly well, and I’m a big fan of Jack Tudor.

ROYALE PAGAILLE must have a small chance of upsetting the applecart in the Betfair Chase (3.00pm) at 9/1. His two Peter Marsh wins round here read very well, while his second to A Plus Tard in this race wasn’t too shabby either. Bravemansgame has been the subject of much debate since Wetherby and, while he obviously stays this trip, the softer ground places an emphasis on stamina that woudn’t be his strong suit. Protektorat has a shot at defending his crown, but you would much prefer his stable to be going better.

WASDELL DUNDALK can continue his progress in the staying handicap chase (3.35pm). He’s been running very honestly in solid company since joining this yard, who seem to have proved that he’s been running over the wrong trip most of his life. He might just be keeping half a step ahead of the handicapper with each little increased test of stamina. 8/1.

Saturday, Ascot

SHISHKIN has shown a mercurial side on occasion, but he’s about the best around when on song, and anything like his last appearance at Ascot will see him land the feature there (1.30pm) with some ease. His price is as it should be at 13/8, but I wouldn’t want to lay him at any bigger.

THEATRE GLORY can build on a good last season in the big hurdle (2.05pm). In an ideal world, the ground would continue to dry, as this mare has plenty of speed – certainly more in the way of a turn of foot than her rivals. She might have hit the frame at the Festival but for being poorly positioned in a tactical race. Expect her to be tracking the pace here under Nico de Boinville, whose form figures on her read 11313. Tempting at 5/2.

BOOTHILL is a fair favourite for the two miler (3.15pm) at 11/4. Again, I’d like not to see any rain, but on that proviso, he once again has the perfect set up: a strongly run race at this sort of trip. Corrigeen Rock and Aucunrisque will crack on at a brisk gallop, and Boothill will move stylishly into this. I firmly believe he’ll be landing on Graded races before the season is done, but he can take this first.

Saturday, Punchestown

PIED PIPER might just be worth a tiny interest at 7/1 to give State Man a fright in the Morgiana at Punchestown (2.35pm). He didn’t get within hailing distance last season, but he was in that tricky 4/5 year old year, and the Cesarewitch run suggests he might have returned to the fray in better form. He’ll have a race-fitness advantage, and the stable seem to have their big guns firing better than has been the case for some time. Jack Kennedy’s recent record tells you everything you need to know about just what a valuable asset he is.