Nick Luck’s William Hill Blog: Cheltenham and Doncaster are Under Control

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck runs his expert eye over the best of Saturday’s action from Cheltenham and Doncaster.

Cheltenham, Saturday

BILL BAXTER is an each-way play at 12/1 in a tough TV opener at Cheltenham on Trials Day (1.15pm). Sam Twiston-Davies gets back in the saddle for the first time since their Topham victory, and there are valid excuses for two lesser runs recently, the first when helping to force an overly strong race, and both over a distance that stretches him. I like the drop in trip, and the yard’s horses are running quite well.

AHOY SENOR is a tough horse to pick on the back of his two no-shows this season (1.50pm), but a small field on decent ground should bring about the best in him, and he is a good price at 6/1 on class alone. If he gets into a rhythm, he’ll just take these out of their comfort zone.

JONBON (2.25pm) and LOSSIEMOUTH (3.00pm) are both heavy favourites at 3/10 and 8/11 respectively, but I don’t really envisage defeat for either. Jonbon has only ever lost to El Fabiolo and Constitution Hill, and he was imperious here in November, while Lossiemouth’s rivals all have pretty big questions to answer.

PAISLEY PARK is always a shade bigger than he ought to be these days, but I make him a bit of a standout in the Cleeve (3.35pm) at 11/4. He is in superb form this season and, given that this could be a real war with bags of pace on, he should really come to the fore. Never out of the first two on good ground, he has an awful lot in his favour.

Doncaster, Saturday

UNDER CONTROL might be good enough to upset the Mullins duo in the warm mares’ hurdle at Donny (2.05pm). She managed to better the very useful Iberico Lord at Sandown (pair clear), and was all the rage for her comeback in the Gerry Fielden. A wind-op since suggest where the weakness lay, and a speedy two miles looks exactly what she wants on last season’s evidence. 7/2.

DESTROYTHEEVIDENCE is thriving this season, despite many of his stable not really hitting top gear (2.40pm). His stamina is cast iron, he’ll be boldly ridden, and he did very well despite unsuitably soft ground last time. 7/2.

ERNE RIVER makes a bit of appeal at a price of 16/1 in the big race at Doncaster (3.15pm). His form figures at this track read 1121, he is still really well treated on his novice form, and his return to the winners’ enclosure here last time was notable for the way he powered through the race. In the end, the margin of victory meant only a tiny rise, and he must be at least on the shortlist.