Nick Luck’s Blog: Alligator can snap up the opener at York

William Hill ambassador Nick Luck runs through his best bets on the opening day of York’s Ebor Festival.

Wednesday, York

ALLIGATOR ALLEY looks poised to run a huge race in the opener to York’s Ebor Festival on Wednesday (1.50pm) at 11/1. He often ruins his chance at this track over the minimum trip by fluffing the start, but he has been much better in that regard the last twice (running well on unsuitably soft both times), and gets an extra half-furlong to reel them in. This intermediate trip might be bang-on for him, while the drying ground is in his favour and the jockey has been riding out of his skin the last few weeks.

BALLYMOUNT BOY should take a bit of beating in the Acomb (2.25pm) at 9/4. He has clearly shown up very well before turning up at Goodwood, where he justified that faith by losing out by only a length to subsequent Morny winner Vandeek, shaping for all the world as though an extra furlong was needed. This big, powerful horse can learn from his experiences at tricky tracks the last twice to excel on this fairer, flatter terrain to which he should be better suited.

CONTINUOUS might be a viable alternative to Gregory in the Great Voltigeur (3.00pm) at 5/2. There’s just a chance that Gregory will have to do all his own donkey work here, and might end up a bit of a sitting duck on a track where a long straight makes such tactics more difficult than at, say, Ascot. He also has to concede three pounds to two rivals neither of whom are rated that far inferior. Continuous himself has run a cracking race in the Dante at York on fast ground, and ran very well despite the tepid pace at Ascot.

MOSTAHDAF is the percentage call in the Juddmonte International (3.35pm) at 9/4. Although an unkind interpretation would suggest a Jekyll and Hyde character, he is Dr Jekyll whenever he gets this sort of distance on fast ground. By contrast, heavy favourite Paddington is encountering new opponents on likely the quickest surface he has ever faced. What is more, this is half a furlong further than he has been. With that in mind, at the prices, it makes sense to veer the way of the higher rated horse.

LA PULGA is a bit of a speculative pick in the staying race (4.10pm) at 16/1. There is absolutely nothing in his pedigree that says he wants two miles, but – if you take the Goodwood swamp out of the equation – the previous twice he tried a decent test, he bolted up both times. Granted, this is further still, but much better ground is absolutely certain to bring about a better showing, and he’s certainly well enough handicapped to win a race that lacks its usual amount of blots and plots.