Nick Luck’s blog: Six to pick in the National

The Grand National is finally here and our man Nick Luck has given us his six picks for the big race along with the lowdown on the other six races from Aintree.

Read on for his thoughts on all seven Aintree races.

Aintree

REMASTERED is a sound pick to land the opener at 9/1 on Grand National Day (1.45pm). Clearly he is very well handicapped on his chasing form, he’s had a breathing operation and comes from a stable that has suddenly sprung into life the last few weeks. He won’t be ridden too far off the pace and should give this a pretty bold shot.

HARBOUR LAKE is worth a small each-way interest at 25/1 in a race where I can find a number of possibilities, and am looking for a price about an improver (2.25pm). I was deeply impressed with the way he travelled all over a really smart horse at Bangor and I like that he’s done it tidily in a handicap. Evidently this is tough, and Three Stripe Life is a good favourite, but conditions should be perfect for the selection.

THIRD TIME LUCKI is surely the bet at 9/2 in the Maghull (3.00pm). I love Edwardstone and think he was rather underappreciated for his Arkle win, but he’s too short to appeal as a bet, and the selection probably ran pretty well to get within four lengths at Warwick when he didn’t look quite at his slickest. I think freshness is a big angle with this horse and that could enable him to get a little closer, particularly given a real test of pace.

CHAMP could surprise a few at 4/1 in the Liverpool Hurdle (3.35pm). The key here is that Flooring Porter blew out after winning the Stayers’ last year and Thyme Hill won this last year after missing Cheltenham. Champ was perhaps most inconvenienced by the pedestrian pace in the Stayers’ hurdle, and there must be a chance that Molly Olly’s Wishes won’t allow Flooring Porter a soft lead this time.

CAP DU NORD can win again in the race before the National (4.15pm). He’s been cannily campaigned this season, and his win at Kempton last time looks all the better after Kitty’s Light’s excellent effort at Ayr. Even an eight-pound rise doesn’t get him to the ceiling of his ability, and this track will suit just fine. At biggish odds of 8/1 (with Shan Blue dominating the market to such an extent) he looks a nice each-way play.

ERNEST GRAY can take the concluding bumper at 5/1 and prove himself a smart prospect for Alan King (6.20pm). He has a pretty appealing pedigree for this job and couldn’t have made a better start for his current connections when thrashing a previous winner in imperious style at Warwick. Obviously, this is much tougher, but he looks well worth a shot at something decent.

Grand National (5.15pm)

FIDDLERONTHEROOF can provide a glorious conclusion to Colin Tizzard’s storied and excellent training career by winning the 2022 Grand National at 16/1. A retrospective of this horse’s career shows that he has been giving his best against the very best for several seasons. A Grade One winner over two miles as a novice hurdler, even his defeats in that sphere were at the hands of Thyme Hill and Edwardstone. As a novice chaser, he clearly yearned for a step up to three miles and when that finally happened, he gave Next Destination a fright before running up the back of Monkfish. But perhaps the most compelling evidence came in the Ladbrokes Trophy, where he battled tenaciously under a big weight having been badly hampered four out. I believe he was unlucky not to win that well run race where jumping and travelling in a big field are at a premium and he is theoretically well-in here, having been raised for his Ascot run (lost a shoe) since the weights were published.

DELTA WORK is a horse of significant class and must run a huge race at 10/1. Even in the 2020 Gold Cup, he was looking as though a marathon test of stamina was what he needed, and he seems to have substituted a bit of his zip for an ability to really grind it out judged on his victory in the Cross Country. The theoretical case for him is perhaps the strongest of any, but his tendency to just be a little slovenly at the odd fence combined with his skinny odds just edges him down the pecking order behind Fiddlerontheroof.

There really is nothing left in the price of the hugely popular SNOW LEOPARDESS at 8/1, but you can be certain she’ll run well. I’ve not seen any horse measure the Aintree fences with her precision, and that should carry her an awful long way. She is not, however, quite as well handicapped or classy as some and she might prefer the ground a little easier.

ENJOY D’ALLEN has very pleasing credentials to run a place at 14/1. I don’t think he’s a brilliant horse, but he’s honest, jumps pretty well and stays. Most compellingly, he really seems to come alive with the demands of a big field and remains on an upward curve.

Others that interest me in the extended places market include GOOD BOY BOBBY at 22/1, who has some smart form this season and who could easily improve quite a bit for a marathon trip, and MIGHTY THUNDER at 33/1, whose two recent runs can be fairly easily forgiven, has had a breathing op, and whose Scottish National heroics suggest strongly that he can pick up a bit of money late. He could go really well if there’s a total pace meltdown.

Check out the latest Grand National 2022 odds at William Hill