Nick Luck’s blog: One will Toy with her rivals

It’s a scorching day of racing and our man Nick Luck has picked out his best fancies for the day.  

Read on for Nick’s thoughts on eight races from Newbury, Market Rasen, and the Curragh.

Newbury 

TASMAN BAY is getting another chance at 7/1 in the TV opener at Newbury on Saturday (1.50pm). He boasted some very smart form as a three-year-old, and I thought that the combination of gelding and more time would bring about an even better effort at Ascot. That failed to materialise, but he simply pulled way too hard, and I’m hoping that will have brought him on fitness-wise. He may get the run of things in this small field at a track where he’s run well before.

ROCK EAGLE may have all the stars aligned for a big run at 4/1 in the staying handicap (2.21pm). The stable remans in superb form, and this consistent gelding will appreciate the return to this distance after just being found out for stamina in the Ascot Stakes, where he was done few favours by having to race very wide. This is less competitive, and a repeat of his recent efforts would see him on the premises.

SAINT LAWRENCE looks a very big price at 16/1 and is a nice each way bet in the Hackwood Stakes (2.56pm). He didn’t look an obvious candidate for five furlongs at the beginning of the season, but Group One entries clearly indicated that connections thought otherwise and he’s done pretty well, most notably in first time blinkers in the King’s Stand. It is highly likely, however, that a return to six is what he wants, and he really doesn’t need that to eke out much more to make him competitive.

UNION COURT can outrun her odds of 12/1 for her good trainer in the Super Sprint (3.30pm). She won a tidy enough race with quite a bit in hand on her debut, beating the now 92-rated Tagline. She then followed up with minimal fuss (3rd has won twice since), before running way better than the finishing position suggests against colts in the Windsor Castle. She runs off a nice light weight according to the race conditions and will give a bid showing.

Market Rasen 

ASK PADDINGTON can continue his splendid winning spree at 4/1 for the excellent Rebecca Menzies in the staying handicap at Market Rasen (2.06pm). Although he is tackling slightly better opposition here, none of his rivals are exactly straightforward and he is deadly at this track. It is no certainty that the handicapper has got him just yet, and Galileo Silver should ensure the race is run to suit.

CARAMELISED looks the interesting one at 15/2 in the Summer Hurdle (2.41pm), provided the sun keeps beating down to offset the watering and the ground is genuinely good or faster. He is a very quick horse in this grade, as evidenced by smashing a thirty-year track record on the Flat at Bath last time and by his two pulverising hurdles wins last year. His issue thereafter was a tendency to race too freely, but he is undoubtedly well handicapped, open to continued improvement and – when he harnesses his enthusiasm – is a brilliant jumper.

MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN has loads of ability and can win the Summer Plate (3.14) at 15/2. He ran another good race on a lively surface at Uttoxeter last time, when just outstayed by the more stamina laden and very useful Demachine. That was his first run after a breathing op, and he’s won smartly off this sort of mark before. He looks a very fair price.

Curragh

With Emily Upjohn now sadly out of the Irish Oaks (3.45pm), the race makes considerably less appeal and has also taken the each-way shape out of it if you were looking for one to hit the frame at a price. That being said, I’ll still be having a small win-only bet on TOY at 13/2. There were a few raised eyebrows when Ryan Moore was declared on her over her better fancied stablemates, but it’s not that hard to see why. For starters, she ought to be a good bit better than she’s shown as a full sister to multiple Group One winners. Most of those appreciated and improved for better ground. In addition, Toy’s two runs in French Classics were inconclusive: she ran well in the Guineas, staying on late, but found herself wide in a messy Prix de Diane, and wasn’t persevered with when beaten. This is likely to be much more up her street, and with the strong likelihood of Ballydoyle being able to have a big say in how this race is run, she should go well.