Nick Luck’s blog: Bounding for one in the Irish Derby

It’s a serious Saturday of racing with action from Newcastle, Newmarket, and the Curragh, and there’s one I like the look of in the Irish Derby at a huge price.  

Read on for Nick’s thoughts on eight races this Saturday.

Newcastle 

TOMMY DE VITO looks to have a decent chance of at least hitting the frame at odds of 10/1 in the Newcastle TV opener on Plate Day (1:50pm). Effective on synthetic, this relatively light raced horse is also very good when fresh, so should appreciate the break he’s had since a disappointing run on turf last time, when the ground was too quick and he lost a shoe. Earlier efforts make him well treated in what is just a fair race for the grade.

GLEN SHIEL looks ready to strike at 5/1 in the Chipchase (2:25pm). I’m sure he shouldn’t have more than one horse ahead of him in the market, but he’s always been curiously unfashionable. Put simply, he owns the best form in the race, normally takes a run or two to get there, and is uncomplicated tactically. Add to that his effectiveness at this track and you have a fairly compelling proposition.

ZOFFEE is worth a small interest at 14/1 in the Northumberland Vase (2:55pm). He’s not getting any younger, but seems to be thriving back on the flat, and you can make a pretty solid case that he should have more to come in this discipline, particularly given this step up in trip. I loved his attitude at Carlisle last time and expect a bold showing.

TRUESHAN might have an enormous weight, but he might pull off the unthinkable at 11/2 in the Plate (3:30pm). He wasn’t beaten far in a farce of a race last year, where they all finished in a heap, and was staying on strongly at the finish. He races off just a two-pound higher mark, and there is a case to be made that he might be better this year. There should be a more honest gallop this time, and I’m hoping he can outclass them. His own stablemate RAINBOW DREAMER may be his biggest danger at 14/1 after a breathing operation.

Newmarket 

MALRESCIA looks too big at 4/1 in the Empress at Newmarket (2:05pm). She had the misfortune to run into Dramatised first up, but has otherwise been completely flawless, looking sharper and faster with each run. I wouldn’t mind a bit of rain, but good ground should be fine.

STOWELL can win at 3/1 in the Fred Archer Stakes (2:40pm). He ran very well at Royal Ascot, but was a hostage to a messy race pace-wise, and did second best of those held up. He’ll appreciate slightly calmer waters and will have plenty of use made of him here.

POGO is value at 11/2 to follow up in the Criterion Stakes (3:15pm). Although the market makes a strong case for Laneqash to reverse the Haydock form, that rival failed to move forward from a similarly eye-catching seasonal debut last year, and it’s really hard to get a handle on what Sunray Major is capable of. It’s not inconceivable he gets the run of the race again.

Curragh

BOUNDLESS OCEAN is taken to evoke memories of Jet Ski Lady by springing a monster shock at 50/1 in the Irish Derby (3:45pm) for Jim Bolger. At the time of writing, he is six times the price of Hannibal Barca, a horse that he would likely have finished upsides with any kind of a clear run in the Gallinule. His next run was a farce as there was no pace and he simply ran out of finish having pulled too hard. He is much likelier to settle granted the stronger pace here, and there’s so much stamina in his pedigree, you could argue he’s done pretty well to achieve what he has over shorter trips. With the Derby form a little suspect and a searching test at this track not certain to suit Tuesday, it’s time to take a big swing and Mr Bolger is just the man for the occasion.