Sir AP McCoy’s William Hill blog: Cheltenham November Meeting Friday and Saturday Preview

William Hill ambassador Sir AP McCoy previews Friday and Saturday of Cheltenham’s November Meeting, where Jonbon is the star name beginning his campaign in the Shloer Chase. 

Cheltenham, Friday

We kick off the Cheltenham November Meeting with the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle (1.10pm), and Double Powerful has to be respected having gone up nearly 40 lbs in the handicap since March. He definitely looks like he has more to come again based off his win the other day at Fontwell, but the one I like is Young Lucy for Tony Martin. She’s shown some interesting form on the Flat, including recently at Navan when she caught the eye. She looks very unexposed over hurdles as well, and at around 10/1 she strikes me as a value pick each-way.

Springwell Bay heads the betting in the three-mile novices’ chase (1.45pm) and you can see why after his nice win at Chepstow on debut over fences. The form of that race looks a little bit in and out, though, and I think Buddy One could run well. He impressed me on his chase debut at Galway and I think the ground was just too soft for him at Wexford against good horses in Corbetts Cross and Heart Wood next time out. In terms of hurdle ratings, he’s clear of Springwell Bay and Hyland, and at the prices, I think he’s better than his odds reflect.

It’s brilliant to see Jonbon back in the Shloer Chase (2.20pm). He’s a great horse – a proper athlete and there’s nothing not to like about him. I think Nico de Boinville gets a real tune out of him and his last two performances at Aintree and Sandown were as good as I’ve seen from him. Edwardstone has to be respected as he’s a good horse in his own right, but on all known form this looks like Jonbon’s to lose. Nicky Henderson’s horses don’t look like they’re flying at the minute, but Jonbon just has it all, and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t win.

Conflated heads the weights in a relatively small-field affair in the cross-country (2.55pm) and I think he might just have too much class for his opponents. He was quite disappointing at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall, but this doesn’t look the strongest Cross-Country race, and I think there are plenty of holes in the others prominent in the betting. Mister Coffey is yet to win over fences, and maybe Nicky has found a route that’ll change that, but I think that Conflated will be well-able to carry the weight and land the odds.

The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (3.30pm) looks a cracking renewal, albeit there are only six runners. The betting would suggest that it’s a match between Valgrand and Potters Charm, and I’m going to side with the Skeltons’ horse here. There’s not much between the pair of them, with both having impressed at Cheltenham’s October Meeting, but I was marginally more taken by Valgrand. I think he might have a little bit more in hand here against the Twiston-Davies runner, and he’s the one for me.

The Friday finale (4.00pm) is a difficult puzzle to solve, but I’ve come down on Paul Nicholls’ Fasol in the end. He was considered good enough to contest a very hot Queen Alexandra at Royal Ascot in the summer, where he ran very well to finish fourth. He hasn’t been seen since, but I think that alone stands him out from the rest. I expect Paul Nicholls to have had this race in mind for him for a while, and he’ll be tough to beat.

Cheltenham, Saturday

Saturday at Cheltenham kicks off with a juvenile hurdle (12.35pm) where East India Dock is the favourite for last year’s winning trainer James Owen, but I’m not sure his win at Wincanton is the strongest form about. I’m more drawn to Joseph O’Brien’s filly Prairie Angel who’s two-from-two over hurdles, including when a nice winner at Down Royal earlier this month. She created a lovely visual impression for me on that occasion, and without a real standout British-trained horse, I think she’s the one to be with here.

It’s exciting to see L’Eau Du Sud in the Arkle Trial (1.45pm) after his smart chase debut at Stratford back in October. He looked very professional that day, and I particularly liked the way he jumped. He also looks a straightforward ride, which is a real asset when you’re riding two-mile chasers around Cheltenham. He was a very smart handicap hurdler, with Cheltenham Festival form to his name, and he looks like he could be even better over fences. I think he might just have the measure over his main market rival, Lookaway, and as 11/8 shots go, he’s not a bad one.

You can see why Ginny’s Destiny is favourite for the feature on Saturday (2.20pm). Second-season novices have a very good record in the race, Paul Nicholls has won it three times, including last year with Stage Star, and you know this’ll be his Derby. I’d say this guy’s better than Stage Star too, and for me, he’s going to be hard to beat. I wouldn’t rule out Protektorat, though, despite having to carry top weight. He’s the Ryanair winner who’s got bundles of class and ticks plenty more boxes than most. Il Ridoto also has an interesting chance. He’s down to the same mark as when he last won at Cheltenham and will only carry a featherweight with Freddie Gingell taking off three pounds. Don’t rule him out either.

The three-mile handicap hurdle (2.55pm) looks a tricky race to work out, but I liked to look of Doyen Quest. He ran well on his seasonal reappearance at Chepstow and looked like he’d be suited to a step up in trip here, having won at Cheltenham back in April. He looks to be upwardly mobile for the Skeltons, so he’d be the one for me, but don’t sleep on Thanksforthehelp, as I think he could have an each-way chance at a bigger price.

Wyenot is the one I like in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle (3.30pm) for Henry Daly. She won nicely the last day, and she seems a reasonably lightly raced type with a good bit of upside to her. I wouldn’t put people off Wonderful Eagle either, trained by Philip Hobbs and Johnson White. He won well at Newton Abbot in September and ran respectably on softer ground at Ascot on the Flat on his next start. He’ll be more suited to conditions here and could be worth a go at a bigger price.