MMA
UFC Fight Night 262 Prediction: De Ridder vs Allen
UFC Fight Night 262 marks the promotion’s return to Vancouver for the first time since UFC 289 in June 2023.
While the card has gone through multiple changes, the new middleweight main event between Reinier de Ridder and Brendan Allen is a huge clash with serious stakes at play.
Originally, de Ridder was set to face Anthony Hernandez before injury forced Hernandez out. In stepped Allen, a capable replacement, but one who enters this bout under pressure and against the odds.
Since arriving from ONE Championship, Reinier de Ridder (21-2, 4-0 UFC) has quickly silenced sceptics. Many fans doubted whether his dominance in Asia would translate to UFC success, but four wins in less than a year have proved otherwise.
Submission victories in his debut run were expected, but the Dutchman has added a new layer to his game with a vicious knockout of Bo Nickal and a hard-fought win over former champ Robert Whittaker.
Now, he headlines his fifth UFC fight in 11 months and does so as a solid favourite priced odds-on at 4/9 against an opponent in need of a bounce-back.
Brendan Allen (25-7, 13-4 UFC) was once one of the division’s hottest prospects. A seven-fight winning streak had him knocking on the door of title contention in 2024, with wins over the likes of Marvin Vettori and Chris Curtis. But since then, it’s been a downhill slide.
Back-to-back decision losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Anthony Hernandez have pushed him back in the queue. His recent form makes this a risky fight, and history isn’t on his side: Allen hasn’t won a fight as an underdog in nearly six years; he’s 7/4 to emerge from this fight victorious.
Reinier de Ridder v Brendan Allen Odds:
- Reinier de Ridder – 4/9
- Brendan Allen – 7/4
- Draw – 66/1
De Ridder is a grappling machine, with an elite submission game and improving striking. His knockout of Nickal in May turned heads, showing he’s more than just a jiu-jitsu threat. But even more impressive was his resilience and fight IQ against Whittaker – a fight where he entered as a significant underdog but adapted well over three rounds.
On the other hand, Allen is well-rounded but inconsistent. He’s at his best when he mixes his wrestling and striking, but he’s been hesitant under pressure in recent fights. There’s no doubt he has the skill set to trouble de Ridder if he keeps the fight standing and avoids grappling exchanges, but he’s facing a fighter who thrives in chaos and pushes the pace.
Prediction
Momentum is everything in MMA, and de Ridder has it in abundance. He’s already turned back bigger names in this division, and he’ll be tough to overcome, especially for someone like Allen who’s coming off back-to-back losses and is easily the underdog going into the cage.
Unless Allen can land something big early or stuff takedowns consistently, he’s likely to be dragged into deep waters. De Ridder’s pressure and grappling transitions are elite, and if he gets top position, he’s relentless.
Based on that, we’re predicting a win for De Ridder by submission (EVS), potentially in Round 2.
If you’re a combat sport fan, you might like to read about the odds for Daniel Dubois’ next fight in Boxing.
