Motor Racing

Las Vegas Grand Prix Prediction & Betting Tips (2025)

5 hours ago

| BY Sam Cox

The Las Vegas Grand Prix comes with Lando Norris on the brink of his first Drivers’ Championship after wins in Mexico and São Paulo.

Holding a 24-point lead over his teammate Oscar Piastri, Norris is very much in the box seat, but he’s not the F1 betting favourite for this weekend’s race.

Las Vegas Grand Prix Winner Odds:

Punters can bet on the winner of the 2025 Las Vegas Grand Prix at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

Max Verstappen – 13/8
Lando Norris – 9/4
George Russell – 4/1
Oscar Piastri – 8/1
Kimi Antonelli – 8/1
Charles Leclerc – 18/1

Max Verstappen is the betting favourite at 13/8. McLaren are expected to have a difficult weekend in Sin City – Norris had a DNF and Piastri finished 10th in 2023, and the pair finished sixth and seventh, respectively, in 2024.

With only three races to go, Norris can afford to drop points this weekend so long as he still picks up something. Verstappen is 49 points behind the title leader and requires a minor miracle to overturn such a deficit.

Norris’ Pessimism

After his win in Brazil, Norris was very pessimistic about his chances in Vegas. Much of that is down to how he has previously fared in Nevada.

He said, “I’m not saying I’m going to be 10th. I’m just saying I think it’s going to be difficult to win. We were a long way off – just go and look at the data from last year. Look at the race traces – we were miles off…

“I’m giving my honest opinion on how I think we’re going to be. We’ve never been good there, so I’m not the most confident about going into that race.”

Of course, a lack of pace for McLaren would impact Piastri, too. The Australian, who hasn’t finished on the podium in the last five races, desperately needs to finish higher than his teammate.

Mercedes’ Chances

Mercedes registered a one-two with George Russell and Lewis Hamilton in this race 12 months ago. That’s the main reason the Silver Arrows are shorter odds than usual to win this one, with Kimi Antontelli sharing the same price as Piastri at 8/1.

Notably, the weather is expected to be very similar to the 2024 race, with cooler temperatures likely to favour the Mercedes cars. Antonelli earned his first podium in 11 races in Brazil, while Russell finished ahead of Piastri.

The pace in Brazil bodes well for Vegas. It’s very much in play that both Mercedes cars make the podium if the McLarens struggle as much as Norris expects.

Las Vegas Grand Prix Best Bet:

Verstappen Race Winner, Leclerc Podium Finish, & Antonelli Top Six Finish @ 12/1

It’s a tailormade situation for Verstappen to reignite his title hopes after a heroic drive to the podium from the pitlane in Brazil. Charles Leclerc was only a couple of seconds off third place in Vegas last year, and has seven podiums to his name this year, including in two of the last three races.

The case for Antonelli is simple. His midseason slump feels like a distance memory – he’s finished in the top six in four of the last five races and had a career-best finish in Brazil. Mercedes enjoyed this track in 2024, and that should continue into this year’s race weekend.