Motor Racing

Qatar Grand Prix Prediction & Betting Tips (2025)

2 days ago

| BY Sam Cox

The decision to disqualify Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri from last weekend’s Las Vegas Grand Prix has added some extra spice to the Qatar Grand Prix.

Norris, the Drivers’ Championship leader, has a 24-point lead over Piastri and Max Verstappen.

Bet on Formula 1 with William Hill

Verstappen is the F1 betting favourite to win in Lusail. Even with eight points available for the sprint race, Norris cannot win the title until the Grand Prix itself. The Brit must claim at least a point more than Piastri and Verstappen across the weekend to avoid the season going down to a decider in Abu Dhabi.

Norris already has a sufficient lead to win any countback scenario over Piastri or Verstappen. As a result, if his lead in the championship is 25 points after this weekend, he will be crowned champion, as he could afford a DNF in Abu Dhabi.

Qatar Grand Prix Winner Odds:

Punters can bet on the winner of the 2025 Qatar Grand Prix at William Hill and here is the current state of the market:

Max Verstappen – 5/4
Lando Norris – 7/4
Oscar Piastri – 6/1
George Russell – 11/1
Charles Leclerc – 14/1
Kimi Antonelli – 18/1

Compulsory Two-Stop Race

A mandatory second pit stop has been added by Pirelli. Tyres, for the purposes of driver safety, are limited to 25 laps. In Sunday’s race, drivers must stop on or before the 25th lap.

An 18-lap limit was in place in 2023. There was no limit in 2024, but the tyre manufacturer reported high levels of wear. Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz suffered punctures.

Pirelli are bringing the hardest compounds (C1, C2, and C3) to Lusail. High lateral energy and Qatar’s high temperatures contribute to significant tyre wear throughout the race weekend.

Verstappen Keeps Fighting

Write off Verstappen at your peril. Where Piastri has endured a season-defining slump when the pressure has increased, Verstappen has flourished. He’s been there and done it, and he’s getting the absolute most out of a challenging Red Bull.

Norris’ margin for error was chipped away at by the disqualification. It’s brought Verstappen firmly into contention, particularly if he can take all eight points from the sprint race.

The four-time world champion has won the previous two races in Lusail. Piastri finished on the podium in Qatar 12 months ago, but he hasn’t registered a top three finish in his last six outings.

Qatar Grand Prix Best Bet:

Max Verstappen Race Winner, Lando Norris Podium Finish & George Russell Top Six Finish (13/8)

George Russell has finished outside the top six once in the last 10 races. Norris was second in Vegas before his disqualification, which would have made it five straight podium finishes for the British driver.

Verstappen is not only very comfortable at Lusail, but he’s got the slight advantage of being the only teammate in contention. McLaren have been open about their intention to keep things fair, which could compromise both drivers. Verstappen will get pit lane priority over Yuki Tsunoda.

These are also circumstances that seem to work in Verstappen’s favour. It becomes effectively three sprint races, with little strategy for teams to work out. The sense is that driver skill could be deciding factor, though a win for Verstappen will leave him needing a miracle in Abu Dhabi if Norris gets a podium spot.