William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews Newmarket’s July Festival Saturday card and the day’s action from York and Ascot.
Newmarket, Saturday
ORION’S BELT is the pick in the opening leg of the Super Saturday TV marathon at Newmarket (1.40). She was hammered in the betting on her debut (against colts) and, although coming up short, went through most of the race like a talented filly. If she moves forward from that in fitness and experience, she should set a pretty fair standard.
MISS NIGHTFALL must surely have her day in a smart fillies’ handicap (2.12). A talented filly, she’s been a bit unlucky this year and still looks well ahead of her mark. I don’t mind the drop in distance – she should have more pace to aim at – and I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t have more to offer.
RUN BOY RUN looks a viable each way alternative to obvious and heavy favourite More Thunder in the Bunbury Cup (2.50). He’s been tremendously consistent at this track, and posted a good effort at Ascot behind a couple of these. Although the form book gives him something to find, he did incredibly well against the strongest draw bias of the week, and would surely have been placed with a higher post position. In addition, there’s not much pace in this race, and he could just get up a head of steam. Myal is another who can hit the frame at fair odds.
BEDOUIN PRINCE should continue his progress in the mile handicap (3.25). A well bred colt out of a Guineas runner up, he beat a subsequent winner really stylishly last time. This looks a very realistic step up the ladder for the week’s dominant stable.
SABA DESERT is a bit of a hunch play in the Superlative (4.00). He might not have beaten much in a rather steadily run affair at Sandown on his debut, but he came home quite impressively, and William Buick was surprisingly effusive about his attributes after the race. The stablemate here has perfectly solid claims, yet he has been deserted for this colt, which makes me think there is a fair chunk more to come.
I’m really looking forward to the July Cup, particularly with Notable Speech added to the race… on class, he should arguably be even shorter than he is, and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at current odds.
That said, the rest are a much more tightly matched group than the betting suggests, and can all be given some sort of each way squeak if the cards fall their way.
I had a long look at Believing, on the basis that the Ascot run was easily forgivable. I fear the completely unexposed Spy Chief, who has freaky speed judged on his Jersey run. I thought there was some mileage in Jasour if you’re playing the extra places.
But the long handle has come out here for ROGUE LIGHTNING. For starters, he’s rated higher than or equal to 8 horses in front of him in the betting. But much more than that, he is really pretty unexposed at six furlongs. And, in Doha in the spring, he trounced two useful sprinters – Washington Heights and Quinault – on what has been his only meaningful try at this trip. As he showed there – and in an excellent run at Keeneland – he loves fast ground, and can go very well fresh. I like the booking of Richard Kingscote, and think he should be less than half his current odds.
York, Saturday
SISYPHEAN can strike in the TV opener at York (2.00). He ran well from a very poor draw at Ascot, showing he remained in good form, and is a shade better off with Old Cock from their meeting in the Hambleton. We’ve not reached the bottom of him yet.
GRAND GREY looks interesting in the City Walls (2.35). He’s had valid excuses the last twice and although he doesn’t look an obvious candidate for a fast five, this will be furiously run and could just collapse for him. On the form of his Palace House run, he could be bang in the mix.
NAQEEB is drawing me in for the John Smith’s Cup (3.10). He has been repurposed as a faster horse by his new stable – and it seems to be working judged on his progressive curve this season. I don’t mind another drop in trip either: he’s travelling much more sweetly these days, as befits a half brother to a champion miler. It can often pay to race prominently in this, and he might well be sent forward from his middle draw and sit one or two back, not too wide.
TABLETALK might have his moment in the Silver Cup (3.45). He’s very effective here, and has returned an improved horse… the step up in trip and down in grade should see him very competitive.
Ascot, Saturday
POINT LYNAS might shock a few at huge odds in the Summer Mile at Ascot (2.22). He’s a bit in- and-out, but loves firm ground and is very dangerous when getting loose on the lead. That is a very real possibility here, with the round mile likely to play heavily to his strengths.
WOOLHAMPTON makes a bit of sense in the dash at Ascot (4.50). She knows this place like the back of her hand, invariably running really well, and the bigger the field, the better. She’s coming down the weights a bit to a competitive mark, and showed she was ready to run a big race when rather unlucky last time.
