Politics
Next Prime Minister Odds: Angela Rayner Backed To Succeed Keir Starmer
William Hill News report that Angela Rayner leads the betting to succeed Keir Starmer as Prime Minister ahead of Tuesday’s Commons vote on whether he misled Parliament over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.
The former Deputy Prime Minister now leads the way at 9/4, ahead of Andy Burnham at 7/2 and Wes Streeting at 11/2. Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage are both 6/1, while Rupert Lowe is 8/1.
Next Prime Minister After Keir Starmer Odds:
- Angela Rayner – 9/4
- Andy Burnham – 7/2
- Wes Streeting – 11/2
- Ed Miliband – 6/1
- Nigel Farage – 6/1
- Rupert Lowe – 8/1
Starmer’s overall prospects of surviving the year have also taken a hit; the leading bookmaker go 1/5 (83% implied chance) that he ceases to be Labour leader at some point in 2026, with 2027 quoted at 4/1 and 2028 and 2029 or later out at 11/1 and 10/1 respectively.
The current political landscape is also reflected in the UK local elections markets. Reform UK are 1/16 favourites to win the national popular vote, with the Greens at 10/1, Labour at 25/1, the Conservatives 66/1 and the Liberal Democrats 100/1.
Keir Starmer Labour Leadership Exit Year Odds:
- 2026 – 1/5
- 2027 – 4/1
- 2028 – 11/1
- 2029 – 10/1
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “We make it unlikely at 9/2 that MPs vote tomorrow to launch an inquiry into the vetting of Peter Mandelson’s appointment as UK ambassador to the US, but questions remain as to how long Keir Starmer can survive as Prime Minister.
“Even before the vote has taken place, we’ve shortened 2026 to be Starmer’s last year as leader to 1/5 (83% implied chance), anticipating a changing of the guard at the top of government.
“Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner leads the market at 9/4 as the most likely successor, ahead of Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham (7/2) and Health Secretary Wes Streeting (11/2).
UK Local Elections 2026 – Winning Party
- Reform UK – 1/16
- Green Party – 10/1
- Labour – 25/1
- Conservatives – 66/1
- Liberal Democrats – 100/1
“Next week’s local elections could further loosen Starmer’s grip on power, with Reform UK the overwhelming favourites to win at 1/16, followed by the Green Party at 10/1 and Labour at 25/1.”
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
