Politics
House & Senate Odds: Democrats Favored to Win Both Chambers
Democrats remain strong favourites to take control of both chambers of Congress at next month’s US midterm elections, with William Hill pricing a Democratic House and Senate at 8/15.
The party is an overwhelming 1/16 favourite for House control and 1/2 to win the Senate, with prices broadly holding their positions following the substantial shift towards the Democrats in recent weeks.
A split Congress, with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans the Senate, is 12/5. Republican control of both chambers is a 7/1 chance, while a Republican House and Democratic Senate is considered an unlikely outcome at 66/1.
US Midterms – Balance of Power Odds:
- Democrat House & Senate – 8/15
- Democrat House / Republican Senate – 12/5
- Republican House & Senate – 7/1
- Republican House / Democrat Senate – 66/1
Despite the Democrats’ position at the head of the market, William Hill has taken speculative bets on a Republican clean sweep at prices between 5/1 and 7/1. That outcome is now the leading bookmaker’s largest potential loss by a considerable margin.
Attention is also turning to what the result could mean for Donald Trump. The U.S. President is 4/7 to be impeached, approximately a 64% implied chance.
Will Donald Trump be Impeached?:
- Yes – 2/5
- No – 7/4
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Our traders expect a substantial blue wave at the midterms. Democrats are the overwhelming favourites for the House at 1/16 and comfortable favourites for the Senate at 1/2, with the market largely holding firm after the big move in their favour.
“Despite the market strength of their opponents, we have seen some speculative support for Republicans to win both chambers, including bets at prices between 5/1 and 7/1. That is comfortably our biggest losing result, but our assessment still strongly favours the Democrats.
“A Democratic victory would put Trump under considerable political pressure, and our traders believe the prospect of fresh impeachment proceedings would come firmly into focus. We make him 4/7 to be impeached, although our customers have already backed the President quite heavily to avoid that fate.”
Lee Phelps is Head of Broadcast & PR at William Hill, having worked at the leading bookmaker for almost 20 years. Lee can be available for interview via phone and video call, as well as in-person.
