Politics
Political betting odds: Keir Starmer Exit Date Predictions
William Hill’s latest politics markets suggest punters are braced for change at the top of Labour, with 2026 heavily favoured as Keir Starmer’s exit year and a tight race developing over who might replace him.
Exit year market
In the Keir Starmer Exit Date market, 2026 is the standout favourite at 1/5. That price suggests a change in Labour leadership this year is more likely than not, whether via a planned handover or a sudden resignation. 2027 is next at 11/2, while 2028 is a longer 9/1 and “2029 or later” is 7/1, pointing to a relatively small chance that Starmer is still in post by the end of the decade.
Keir Starmer Labour Leadership Exit Year – Latest Odds
*Odds accurate at time of writing.
For bettors, the key question is simple: does Starmer go quickly, or does he ride out the pressure and hold on into a second half of the Parliament? The market clearly leans towards the former, but the bigger prices are there for anyone who thinks he survives longer than expected.
Next Permanent Labour Leader
Alongside the exit-year betting sits the Next Permanent Labour Leader After Keir Starmer market, which focuses on who might take over once Starmer has gone. The front of the market is stacked with familiar Labour names, each with a different route to the top job.
Angela Rayner (15/8) is the current favourite. As former deputy leader and a high‑profile voice on the Labour left, she would be seen by many members as the continuity choice with a sharper edge. Her price reflects both her profile and the assumption that she would be on the ballot in any future contest.
Wes Streeting (11/4) sits just behind Rayner in the betting. The Health Secretary is viewed as a standard‑bearer for the party and has long been talked up as a future leader. At 11/4, he appeals to those who believe Labour will pivot towards a more overtly reformist, modernising platform if Starmer steps down.
The former Labour leader Ed Miliband (9/2) is a shorter price than some might expect. Miliband’s odds show both his enduring influence inside the party and the possibility that members might turn back to a known quantity in a moment of turmoil. Any serious run would be framed as a “steady pair of hands” option, albeit with baggage from his previous spell in charge.
Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham comes next at 13/2. Popular in the North West and with a strong public profile, he has unfinished business at Westminster after two previous leadership bids. His price factors in both his appeal to members and the logistical hurdle of returning from mayoral office to the Commons.
Between the exit‑date and succession markets, William Hill’s prices currently point towards a 2026 departure for Keir Starmer and a closely fought race between Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting to become the next permanent Labour leader, with several credible alternatives waiting in the wings.
