Next Conservative leader after Rishi Sunak

This year looks set to be a seismic 12 months in the political arena for the United Kingdom, with Keir Starmer’s Labour Party heavily odds-on for their first General Election victory since 2005.

The Conservative Party have experienced an admittedly unprecedented but nonetheless disappointing four years since their resounding victory in the 2019 vote, churning through three Prime Ministers and threatening to self-sabotage amidst fierce internal party politics ahead of a likely autumn vote this year.

Rishi Sunak remains at the helm for now and will likely lead the Tories into this year’s vote, but it’s all but certain that the former Chancellor will depart his role as Conservative leader following an anticipated election defeat – or even before the vote is even cast – leading to speculation of who will be tasked with picking up the pieces.

We analyse the current market favourites below.

Kemi Badenoch – 5/2

Kemi Badenoch is the newest name on everyone’s lips with regards to a potential bid to oust Rishi Sunak before this year’s General Election, even if the Secretary for Business and Trade has rubbished those rumours since the beginning of March. The MP for Saffron Walden has earned a lot of plaudits for her proactive work with the Equalities Act and possesses a level-headed approach to tasks and media interviews.

While her odds of 5/2 place her as the favourite for the role, it’s difficult to ascertain where she’d rally the sufficient party support in order to launch a leadership campaign, but she’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

Penny Mordaunt – 11/4

Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt was the market favourite to replace Rishi Sunak as recently as two weeks ago and only narrowly follows Kemi Badenoch in the betting. Mordaunt would on paper be a much fiercer candidate to challenge the current PM and boasts a healthy level of internal support, as well as having extensive engagement and dialogue with local party members.

Many right-wing Tories feel as if the PM for Portsmouth North – a seat she has held for 14 years – should be the person to lead the Conservatives into this year’s general election and is probably a more feasible option to replace Sunak if the Tories decide to act before autumn’s vote.

Robert Jenrick – 5/1

Former Immigration minister Robert Jenrick is a recent big market mover with William Hill to become the next Tory leader, seeing his odds slashed from 12/1 to 5/1 last week and sitting third in the betting. The Newark MP drew attention in December 2023 for resigning over the government’s Rwanda legislation, saying the policy “does not go far enough” and was “based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation.”

He notably said that the Tories have a “young person problem” in a recent speech to a crowd of under 35s in a Westminster pub, creating rumours that he was attempting to manoeuvre himself into a position of party member support among the younger voters. He most likely wouldn’t be a candidate to replace Rishi Sunak if the Tories oust the PM before this year’s General Election, but could be an interesting contender for when the dust settles and a new party direction is agreed upon.

Suella Braverman – 6/1

Two-time Home Secretary Suella Braverman is certainly no danger to the limelight after losing her Cabinet job for the second time in December following an article in The Times that suggested the UK police were tougher on right-wing protesters than “pro-Palestine mobs.” After being replaced by James Cleverly she has continued to garner internal Tory support – particularly across the staunch right-wingers in the party – and has been among the frontrunners to replace Rishi Sunak for a number of months.