Politics
Next General Election Odds: Weight of Money On Reform Majority
Reform UK continue to prove popular with punters, with William Hill reporting a surge of bets on Nigel Farage’s party to secure an outright majority at the next General Election.
The party, led by Farage, were priced at 4/1 for a majority back in May, but steady support has seen that figure cut dramatically to 13/8 as of last week.
Reform are also odds-on at 4/5 to win the most seats, underlining the momentum they appear to have built heading into the next campaign.
Despite the strong backing for Reform, the market still makes No Overall Majority the most likely outcome at 17/20. A Labour majority is priced at 5/1, while a Conservative majority is far less likely at 16/1.
William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps said: “The weight of money for Reform is too much to resist – we recently went odds-on about Nigel Farage’s party winning most seats at the next General Election and we’ve also steadily been cutting the price on an overall majority for Reform.
“That outcome was priced as big as 4/1 in May but has steadily shortened all the way into 13/8 as of last week and if the money keeps coming, that’s expected to shorten further still.
“Keir Starmer has been taking aim at Reform and Farage at the Labour Party conference this week, but odds of 5/1 suggest he has work to do to win another Labour majority at the next election, while a hung parliament, with no overall majority, remains the most likely outcome at 17/20.”
- Here are the latest William Hill odds on the Next UK General Election:
General Election Result
- No Overall Majority / Hung Parliament – 17/20
- Reform UK Majority – 13/8
- Labour Majority – 5/1
- Conservative Majority – 16/1
- Liberal Democrat Majority – 100/1
- Your Party (Sultana/Corbyn Party) Majority – 150/1
Most Seats
- Reform UK – 4/5
- Labour – 15/8
- Conservatives – 6/1
- Liberal Democrats – 40/1
- Greens – 100/1
- Your Party (Sultana/Corbyn Party) – 100/1
Odds accurate at time of writing.
The steady shortening of Reform’s odds reflects a combination of voter sentiment, media attention and punter confidence in Farage’s ability to use his profile to accumulate parliamentary seats.
The party have capitalised on public frustration with both Labour and the Conservatives, positioning themselves as a disruptive force capable of breaking the two-party tradition.
Nigel Farage’s personal popularity has long been a decisive factor in British politics, from the Brexit referendum to his years with UKIP and the Brexit Party. His leadership of Reform has given the party a clear identity, and recent polling suggests the momentum is real rather than speculative.
That energy is being mirrored in betting markets, where money has consistently come for Reform at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives.
There’s no doubt that Reform will continue to gather pace in the lead up to a General Election if they keep expanding; we’ve already seen numerous defectors from both Labour and Conservatives jump ship to join in Farage’s charge for No. 10.
