US Election: Key Swing States

The 2024 US Election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris looks set to go to the wire, with a handful of swing states likely to be key in either party coming out on top in November’s vote.

What is a Swing State?

Unlike “safe” states that consistently lean toward one party, swing states have the potential to completely shift the election outcome. Since the US uses the Electoral College system, where each state’s electoral votes are crucial, winning swing states can be the key to securing the presidency.

Candidates often focus their campaigns on these states, tailoring policies and strategies to appeal to undecided voters and put their party’s neck in front. The unpredictable nature of these states make them decisive in close elections.

Arizona

Arizona is the first of the swing states which looks to be in Donald Trump’s control at the moment with the Republicans 1/2 to win the state come the election. Trump will be looking to turn the state back red given Joe Biden took over in the 2020 presidential election by a margin of 0.3%.

Kamala Harris and the Democrats are further out at 6/4 to retain their majority in Arizona.

Georgia

The Republicans also have their heads in front in Georgia, which was a state dominated by the Republicans between 1996 and 2016. However, in the 2020 election, Joe Biden stole the majority by 0.23% with 2,473,633 votes over Trump’s 2,461,854.

The people of Georgia look to be siding back with Trump with the absence of Joe Biden, and the Republicans lead in the market at 4/6. Harris and the Democrats are meanwhile adrift in the betting at 13/10 to retain control.

Michigan

Joe Biden also took control of Michigan in the 2020 presidential election from the hands of Donald Trump and in doing so ended the Republican’s 24-year reign of the state. Kamala Harris likewise seem to be doing well in the market as a particularly strong 4/9-chance to fly the flag for the Democrats yet again.

The Republicans are meanwhile 13/8 for Trump to turn the state red for a second time this side of the millennium.

Nevada

The Democrats have been in consistent control of Nevada since Barack Obama won with a whopping 55.15% majority in the 2008 presidential election, the largest win in the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

This does look well-contested ahead of this year’s election though, with the Democrats a nose in front at 8/11 ahead of the Republicans, who are even-money to swipe away the state from the grasp of Harris.

North Carolina

Donald Trump has won the North Carolina state in the past two elections despite losing the wider vote to Joe Biden in 2020, and the Republicans are 4/6 to do three in a row.

The Democrats aren’t too far behind at 11/10 to replicate the success of Barack Obama in 2008 where he pipped John McCain to the post by 0.32% of votes.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania looks to be the closest contest in the market, with both the Republicans and the Democrats odds-on in the betting.

Since Barack Obama’s 2012 win in the state, Pennsylvania has yo-yoed between Republican and Democratic favour, with Trump picking it up in 2016, only to have it taken off his hands in 2020 by Joe Biden. Clearly an incredibly important state to win come November, the Democrats are narrowly ahead at 4/5, with the Republicans breathing down their necks at 10/11.

Wisconsin

The final swing state in question is Wisconsin, which has followed the same pattern as Pennsylvania since 2012. The Democrats seem to be leading the charge here however ahead of November’s presidential election and have the short price of 8/15 to pick up the state.

Trump looks increasingly unlikely to replicate his 2016 success in the state this time around with the Republicans out at 11/8.