Who will win the General Election?

Rishi Sunak’s surprise snap election announcement means Brits will go to the polls on 4th July to decide who will govern them for, on paper at least, the next four years.

The United Kingdom has been under Conservative stewardship since 2010 but with Labour leading all of the polls, it’s widely expected we will see a new party head to Number 10 on 4th July.

We dissect all of the main markets below.

Political betting at William Hill

Most Seats in General Election

Keir Starmer’s Labour are the overwhelming favourites to secure the most seats when voters go to the polls in July, trading at a tiny 1/25 to overturn their majority defeat to the Conservatives in 2019.

Whilst winning the most seats doesn’t necessarily guarantee attaining governance in parliament, exemplified by the hung parliaments in 2010 and 2015, Labour’s price suggests that they’ll have more than enough seats in the bank to reach the 326 constituencies required and knock the Tories (9/1) off their 14-year perch.

Next Government

Labour are similarly fancied at 1/10 to not only secure the most seats in July’s vote but also have enough to form a majority government, putting them firmly in the driving seat to have full control of Number 10 in six weeks’ time.

Should Rishi Sunak’s party perform spectacularly better than the polls have been suggesting, then limiting Labour to a minority (fewer than 326 seats) is the next likeliest option at 6/1. That would then force Labour to turn to another party to form a coalition, with the most feasible contenders the Liberal Democrats (10/1) or the SNP (28/1).

A Tory victory is almost entirely off the cards at this stage but should they completely defy the odds and snatch a sensational victory, their likeliest option is via a minority win (16/1) and a subsequent coalition with Richard Tice’s Reform UK (25/1). A Conservative majority is meanwhile priced at a hefty 20/1.

General Election Result

The overall outcome of July’s vote, as mentioned in the Next Government section, is forecast to be a Labour majority for the first time since 2005 under Tony Blair’s leadership. Their odds of 1/10 to secure 326 or more seats would have been well over even-money when the market first opened upon the completion of the 2019 poll, but a series of Tory mishaps across four different Prime Ministers has seen their popularity plummet across the nation.

No overall majority is next in line at 6/1, while a Tory majority is 20/1. An interesting selection in the market is a Reform UK majority, which at 100/1 is considered more likely than a Lib Dem majority at 200/1. This draws parallels with Nigel Farage’s UKIP in 2015 when they secured 3.8 million individual votes, but only won a single parliamentary seat. Reform are certainly one to watch this election as disillusioned Tory voters will look elsewhere to give their support.