Rugby Union
England v Samoa preview: Samoans to rally in final qualification chance
As we come to the final round of Pool Stage fixtures there is still everything to play for in Pool D with some decisive matches happening this weekend.
Here we take a look at Saturday’s game between England and Samoa as the Red Roses look to complete a perfect Pool Stage, whilst the Manu Samoa bid to keep their qualification hopes alive.
We take a closer look at both teams below.
England out to secure perfection
Having won three out of three in Pool D so far, England will set out on their forth and final Pool Stage match hoping to secure a perfect record. Having been subject to criticism and doubt before the tournament, winning four from four would go some way to silencing the doubters, and Steve Borthwick’s men are 1/20 to do just that.
England strolled past Chile in their last game as they scored 71 unanswered points with little resistance from the Chileans. Having had a rest week since then, they should be fighting fit and ready to put in another crucial performance against a determined Samoan outfit.
Despite winning every match, England are not mathematically guaranteed to finish top of Pool D with Argentina and Japan both sitting five points behind them. However, top spot looks somewhat a formality with those two sides playing each other, Argentina potentially needing to win the match by 64 points, with Japan requiring a 96-point margin of victory to jump above England should Borthwick’s men lose to Samoa by a mere point.
A lot of ifs, buts and maybes have to be factored in to see England finish second in the group, all of which look incredibly unlikely with England now 4/11 favourites to reach the semi-final.
With the team set to be shaken up once again following their win over Chile, Henry Arundell may feel most hard done by as the five-try scoring winger is set to be dropped after his stellar performance against the Chileans. Since that match Arundell has seen his odds shorten to 5/1 to be the top try scorer at the tournament, and should England be struggling for points against Samoa he may well be called upon to add to his tally.
One last chance for Samoa
Samoa headed into this tournament with expectations high after their final warm-up match which saw them manage a narrow four-point loss to Ireland, the number one ranked team in the world.
Having racked up six points from their three matches, Samoa have kept themselves in with a chance of securing third place, which gains them automatic entry into the next World Cup, and it is still mathematically possible for them to break into the top two, provided Argentina and Japan draw with neither team gaining a bonus point.
Before worrying about any of that, Samoa will have to focus on overcoming their 8/1 underdog status to beat England on Saturday afternoon. Whether or not the result goes in their favour, there is no doubt that they will make it a tough test for England and with the handicap line at 21 points, we make Samoa the value play at 10/11 to win with the 21 points handicap in their favour.
