Rugby World Cup final preview: All-Blacks to edge out record fourth victory

After just over seven weeks of high-quality rugby union action, all will come to a close inside the Stade de France on Saturday 28th October as New Zealand and South Africa battle it out to each get their name on the Webb Ellis Cup for a record fourth time in the 2023 Rugby World Cup final.

We preview the final below.

New Zealand are peaking at the right time

New Zealand are always one of the most talked about teams heading into the World Cup, but this year the talk was all about how they are not what they once were. The All-Blacks have since gone on to silence the doubters as they find themselves 4/5 favourites heading into their third Rugby World Cup final in the past four tournaments.

In hindsight it seems stupid to have not fancied the All-Blacks to go all the way at the World Cup, but their test series defeat to Ireland last year put doubt in the minds of most rugby union fans.

After losing the first match of the tournament to hosts France, New Zealand have suitably bounced back to overcome Ireland in the quarter-finals, winning by a four-point margin. Their semi-final victory was particularly impressive as they rolled over Argentina with a 44-6 scoreline.

Star fly-half Richie Mo’unga has been a shining light in the All-Blacks resurgence, notching up 50 points in the tournament so far.

Ian Foster’s side will be relishing their extra days rest prior to the final, as well as the fact that they cruised past Argentina in the semis. The All-Blacks will be well-rested and that will be crucial heading into what is bound to be an incredibly physical battle.

This is shaping up to be one of the best finals in recent memory and with the outside factors favouring New Zealand, we can see them getting over the line with a little extra value found in New Zealand to win with a -1 point handicap at Evens.

South Africa can Spring a strong challenge

The pre-tournament favourites South Africa have lived up to all expectations, putting in some noticeably strong performances on their way to a fourth World Cup final.

Despite their early favouritism, the Springboks have faced tough tests in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals, and with one day fewer than New Zealnd to rest and recover they head into the final as slight underdogs at 6/5.

South Africa have certainly not had an easy ride to the final, with their first test coming by way of the well-fancied hosts, France. After a tough battle, they ousted their hosts by one point, with the semi-final going a similar way as they beat a stubborn England side by a single point.

After two testing matches, as well as having less time to prepare than their opponents, South Africa are not favoured in the market but it is still an extremely close call. We don’t expect this match to be any less tight that their previous games and South Africa to win with a +11 point handicap looks a formality at 1/4.

Given how close a call this final is it is tough to find a lot of value, but you can look towards half markets to find it. South Africa have scored just 10 second half points in each of their knockout matches in this tournament, but we can see this final being an even closer contest. Value can be found in backing South Africa to score under 9.5 second half points at 4/5.