Rugby World Cup 2023: Predictions & Tips

With the 2023 Rugby World Cup right around the corner we will be providing you with all of our expert predictions, tips and insights.

Here we will take you step-by-step through all the key information you will need in the buildup to this year’s tournament to set you in good stead to make you Rugby World Cup 2023 predictions and bets.

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Understanding the Dynamics of Rugby World Cup Predictions

The Rugby World Cup is the most prestigious tournament in international rugby union. It is regarded by many to be the biggest rugby union competition on the planet and lifting the Webb Ellis Trophy is seen as a defining moment in the career of any player.

Factors Influencing Rugby World Cup Outcomes

Many different factors can influence the outcome of a Rugby World Cup match, but often the most telling one is a team’s strength, which is often reflected in their ranking.

There is an overall world rugby rankings system based of points accumulated by winning matches throughout the calendar year. Rankings can be very telling and if a country ranked very highly is playing a lower ranked country the odds are likely to be very heavily in favour of the higher ranked country.

Another factor is the individuals within the teams and this includes a player’s for or injuries which may have occurred to players within the squad.

Club rugby can impact an international team’s performance and if a nation has individuals which have performed exceptionally for their clubs they may form a formidable team. Players can also get injured on club duty and this may impact their availability for the national team, potentially making the international side weaker.

Experience is key in any big tournament and the Rugby World Cup is no different. If a team has won one of the more recent Rugby World Cup tournaments then many members of their quad may have World Cup winning experience which will help them perform better under the pressure of the latter stages.

Host country advantage can play a massive part, especially when every game is played in one country. This year all the games will be played in France so the French team will have more support to feed off in all of their matches which will improve their chances of winning.

Statistical Analysis for Accurate Predictions

There are many things to analyse before making your Rugby World Cup predictions and analysing statistical data can help to make much more accurate predictions.

Past tournament data is one factor which can play a huge part as Rugby World Cup matches bring much more pressure than club rugby so finding players and teams which perform well at World Cups rather than just on the club stage will help to determine whether or not they will play well at this World Cup.

Many sports are moving towards statistical analysis and rugby union is the same. There are a plethora of statistics available to allow you to analyse both player and team performance and it is important to take the relevant statistics into account before making you Rugby World Cup 2023 predictions.

Head-to-head records are important when making predictions for the Rugby World Cup. Many of the teams at the Rugby World Cup will have played the other nations on multiple occasions so looking at recent head-to-head records will give you a better idea of which time is likely to win the match next time they face each other.

Only eight teams actually have to qualify for the World Cup and looking at their form could be helpful for finding an unexpected result. You may notice a team has very god form in qualifying compared to a bigger nation having poor recent form which could leave you better informed to predict and upset in a game between a bigger rugby nation and a smaller rugby nation.

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Expert Rugby World Cup Predictions

Early Pre-Tournament Analysis and Favourites

Teams to Watch Out For

The defending champions are always a team to watch out for at the Rugby World Cup and South Africa certainly fall into that category, having won the 2019 edition in Japan. The Springboks have many of the successful 2019 side as part of this year’s squad including star names such as Faf de Klerk, Makazole Mapimpi, and captain Siya Kolisi.

They are just as good, if not better, than last year and with a combination of winning experience and fresh flair they are a side to be feared this year.

New Zealand have been among the strongest contenders from all recent previous tournaments having won two of the last three Rugby World Cups and finishing third in 2019. The All Blacks are always a formidable side and are likely to be right up there again this year.

France are the third of three main contenders and they have the home crowd behind them as they host this year’s tournament. They could only make it as far as the quarter-finals in 2019 so they will be incredibly motivated to perform well in front of their own fans. With some of the world’s best in Grégory Alldritt and Anthoine Dupont at their disposal they will be one of the most feared teams this year.

With eight teams qualifying for the 2023 Rugby World Cup through reginal tournaments there are certainly some emerging rugby nations to keep an eye on as underdogs at the tournament.

The most notable of these are Fiji and Georgia. Fiji have had some impressive wins over better sides on paper in their warm-up matches, whilst Georgia have had some positive performances and wins over similar level opposition as well appearances at the last five World Cups making them one of the most experienced qualifiers.

We expect France and New Zealand to be the shoo-ins to make the semifinals and given that they are drawn on opposite sides of the knockouts a France versus New Zealand final looks highly likely at 3/1.

England look lacklustre heading into this tournament and they don’t have the easiest Pool. Argentina and Fiji will cause them problems and Chile cannot be underestimated with nothing to lose, so we feel that England to be eliminated at the Pool stage provides backable value at 11/2.

Pool Stage Breakdown

Each pool contains three teams who have automatically qualified for the pool stages via a top three finish in the pool stages at the last Rugby World Cup, meaning that there will be some massive matchups even in the pool stages.

The biggest of these looks to be the tournament’s curtain raiser which will see France take on New Zealand. These are two of the three favourites and both squads are littered with some of world rugby’s top talents. The French side will have the full backing of the home crowd but the All Blacks know how to play under pressure and are one of the most formidable sides in the world, especially at World Cups. This match is sure to be a thriller which will set the tone for an exciting tournament.

Another big matchup in the pool stages comes in the third round of fixtures as the top two ranked teams in the world go head-to-head with South Africa v Ireland taking place on 23rd of September. Ireland head into the tournament as the number one ranked side and South Africa are the defending champions so this will be a game of the highest quality and with both sides having immense levels of skill and flair this is sure to be an entertaining matchup.

Our pick for a possible upset in the pool stages comes from Pool D in the match between Chile and England. Steve Borthwick’s side look like they haven’t gelled at all heading into this tournament off the back of five straight losses, whilst Chile are playing at their first World Cup and having nothing to lose can give a team that extra edge. Chile will continue their brand of fast-paced, electric rugby which flows so well with an international side whose players almost all play together week-in week-out, unlike England’s lethargic and disjointed squad. Chile could cause a serious upset here and leave England in a similar sport to where they found themselves in 2015 when they were eliminated at the pool stage.

With only two of the five teams from each pool qualifying for the knockout stages it can be hard for an underdog to make a real impact any further than the quarter-final stage, but with this being one of the most open World Cups in recent memory we have found a team that could just be the dark horse of this year’s knockout stages. Our potential dark horse comes in the form of Georgia who may fancy their chances of reaching the quarter-finals, and maybe even marking a charge to the semis. Georgia will hope to beat Portugal in what should be their easiest group game, followed by Fiji who are a relatively evenly matched side. The real test comes with Australia and Wales but the Aussies have lost all of their warmup games and Georgia actually beat Wales in the Autumn Internationals last year.

Should Georgia manage to scrape through Pool C (9/1) they will likely face one of Argentina, Japan or England from Pool D. Georgia head into the World Cup with more wind in their sails than all of these sides and with a first ever World Cup semi-final appearance on the cards for the Georgian’s (66/1) there is no reason why they couldn’t put together what would probably be the greatest underdog campaign in Rugby World Cup history.

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Rugby World Cup Betting Tips

Here we will run through a few key pointers to keep you on the right track when scouting for your preferred Rugby World Cup markets and bets.

Strategies for Successful Betting

Importance of Informed Betting

It is important to do thorough research before placing your bets to make sure that you are as informed as possible. Doing you research will make you more likely to make successful predictions and bets.

Managing your bankroll is important in all sports betting, including Rugby World Cup betting. It is important to set a budget for your bets and stick to it, regardless of whether you are winning or losing. It is important not to chase your losses.

Types of Rugby World Cup Bets

There are many ways to bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup and one of the main ones is match outcomes. This involves betting on the result of a specific match before the match has kicked off.

Over/points markets are very popular in rugby union and allow the bettor to make a selection in which the winner of the match does not matter. With an over/under bet you are betting on the total number of points scored in the match to be more or fewer than the line set by the bookmaker.

Player performance betting is another popular market in rugby union and involves betting on what specific players will do in a match. This can include betting on specific try scorers and a player to score a certain amount of points.

Navigating Betting Odds

Understanding Betting Odds

Decimal odds make it easier for punters to compare odds without complicated mathematical formulas and allow for a quick view of potential winnings. The higher the number, the higher the potential winnings.

To work out winnings, you need to multiply the stake by the odds. For example, if the decimal odds are 5.00 and your stake is £1, then you would multiply your stake (1) by the odds (5) which would leave with returns totalling £5.

Fractional odds are one of the most straightforward ways of determining how much you will win from a bet.

If the odds are 3/1, you win £3 for every £1 staked. You stake the number on the right to win the number on the left. For example, if you stake £1 at 3/1, you will win £3, leaving you with a total of £4 including your £1 stake.

Analysing Odds in Rugby World Cup

Underdog victories are slightly less common in Rugby World Cup matches but they are not impossible. Keep a look out for underdog opportunities or teams whose stats line up to make them noticeably more likely to win than the odds may suggest.

There is value to be found in a lot of Rugby World Cup markets so be sure to look through thoroughly to find markets and odds which you feel provide noticeably better value than others.

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