NFL
NFL Offensive Player Of The Year Odds: Leading Contenders
NFL Offensive Player of the Year has traditionally been a toss-up between the league’s premier quarterbacks and running backs.
As the game has tilted to be more pass-dominant, wide receivers have become a bigger factor, with wideouts winning the award in three of the last six seasons.
NFL betting markets tab a wide receiver as the favourite after Week 14. Prior to 2019, Jerry Rice was the only wideout to win the honour, but he has been joined by Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, and Justin Jefferson.
The main candidates remain running backs, though much of their appeal comes from how impactful they are as receivers, too.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is more than 200 receiving yards ahead of anyone else yet he isn’t in the NFL MVP conversation. He needs 537 yards across the final four games of the regular season to set the all-time single-season record.
Week 13’s return of 23 yards hampered Smith-Njigba’s chances of breaking NFL records. Sam Darnold doesn’t feel like the league’s most trustworthy quarterback at the moment, but Smith-Njigba still grabbed seven of his 10 targets in Week 14.
A 2.5% drop rate is elite. Seattle’s offense has been massively dependent on Smith-Njigba – he’s been irreplaceable this season and that might be what makes the difference when awards voting rolls around.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs averages an NFL-leading four yards before contact on each rush. Elusive doesn’t do Gibbs justice – he’s second in touchdowns and fifth in scrimmage yards.
Just four running backs have a higher target share than Gibbs. His total EPA is a long way behind Jonathan Taylor, but he’s nip-and-tuck with De’Von Achane for second place.
Gibbs is electric. He has the smarts to wait for a gap to open up and the fleetness of foot to leave defenders in his wake.
Jonathan Taylor
Leading the NFL in touchdowns, first downs, and rushing yards, Taylor was the overwhelming favourite for this award earlier in the season.
The Indianapolis Colts have slowed down, and Daniel Jones’ injury is going to make it easier for opposing defences to focus on Taylor. His value to the Colts cannot be overstated, but it’s significant that he’s less of a factor in the passing game than other award candidates.
Twenty-three running backs have a higher target share. His drop rate is an alarmingly high 10%.
Christian McCaffrey
With 849 rushing yards and 806 receiving yards, Christian McCaffrey is in reach of a 1000/1000-yard season. Only three players have achieved this previously – McCaffrey is the only player to do so this century.
Of the three previous players to go 1000/1000, Marshall Faulk in 1999 is the only time it has been rewarded with Offensive Player of the Year. That’s not to say it’s impossible for McCaffrey to win, but it’s notable voters haven’t been too bothered by such a historic landmark.
Being fifth in receiving yards and an elite running back is certainly impressive. Add in the inconsistency at quarterback, and McCaffrey deserves all the plaudits. He is, however, over 600 receiving yards behind Smith-Njigba and more than 500 rushing yards behind Taylor.
*Odds accurate at the time of writing – prices subject to change*
