FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 Predictions: Burns & Matsuyama Represent Value

This week sees the beginning of the FedEx Cup playoffs at TPC Southwind. Scottie Scheffler tops the golf betting markets, with a rested Rory McIlroy sitting at 12/1 to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

It is the 38th consecutive year that Southwind has hosted a PGA Tour event. The top 50 golfers from the 70-man field will progress to Bellerive Country Club for the BMW Championship.

Course Information

Always a challenging course, TPC Southwind has undergone work over the last decade-plus to become even trickier. Greens have more undulations, bunkers have been added, and trees have been planted to punish errant tee shots.

Only two of the last 16 winners have ranked outside the top 10 in greens in regulation. Watch out for good scramblers here, as successful scrambling has invariably been a good way to evaluate golfers coming into the tournament.

Previous experience and success at Southwind has been indicative in recent years, but that hasn’t always been the case. Plenty of golfers have been competitive on their Southwind debuts.

Big-time power isn’t a necessity at Southwind, which leaves the door ajar for veterans. The course generally favours precision over power, even with the lengthening of several of the par 4s.

Who Does This Favour?

Data Golf tabs Aaron Rai, Russell Henley, Alex Noren, and Brian Harman as the four best fits for Southwind. Tommy Fleetwood, Scheffler, and Matt Kuchar are the three PGA Tour leaders in scrambling percentage this year.

Hideki Matsuyama has the most favourable course history by strokes gained, including a win at this event two years ago. Akshay Bhatia has excelled here in the last two years, and J.J. Spaun was the runner-up in 2025.

Tee-to-green strokes gained has generally been informative, along with greens in regulation. It’s no surprise that puts Scheffler as the clear favourite, with Fleetwood, Cameron Young, and the Fitzpatricks not far behind.

Best Bets

Sam Burns To Win (20/1 Each-Way) & Burns Top 10 Finish (5/2 Price Boost)

Masterful on approach and a great putter, Sam Burns enters the playoffs in sensational form. He’s been getting ever closer to a win with five consecutive top 20 finishes and three top four placings in that span.

Burns tied for fifth at Southwind in 2024. Only nine golfers have a better strokes gained mark at this course.

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 Finish (9/4)

Leading the field in strokes gained at Southwind, Matsuyama is red-hot at the moment. Other big names have put their feet up since the final major of the year, but Matsuyama has kept in rhythm with a third at the 3M Open, a fifth at the Rocket Classic, and a seventh at the Wyndham Championship.

His approach play has generally been very good, and he’s got the game around the greens to save pars when he doesn’t make the green in regulation. It’s a course where a lack of distance shouldn’t hamper his chances.

Alex Fitzpatrick Top 20 Finish (2/1)

Over the last three months, just two golfers have been better tee-to-green than Alex Fitzpatrick. Recent poor form means we can get 2/1 on a top 20 finish, and much of that can be attributed to subpar putting.

Fitzpatrick had top 10 finishes at the Travelers Championship, Memorial Tournament, Truist Championship, and Cadillac Championship. Don’t be surprised if he is among the leaders in greens in regulation.

Viktor Hovland Top 20 Finish (23/20)

It’s been a weird year for Viktor Hovland. He failed to make the cut at the last three majors, but he was third at the Canadian Open, won the Travelers Championship, and finished third at the Scottish Open.

Time off after his Open Championship disappointment could be a useful reset. The Norwegian tied for second on this course a couple of years ago and has the game to negotiate the challenges Southwind presents if his putter doesn’t let him down.