Indian Wells Open Men’s Final 2026: Any Chance Of Medvedev Springing Another Shock vs Sinner?

Remarkably, the final of the Indian Wells Open isn’t another Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner duel.

Here are our tennis betting picks ahead of Sunday night’s clash.

Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner

After upsetting the odds to beat Alcaraz on Saturday, Daniil Medvedev faces Sinner in the final on Sunday night. Medvedev handed Alcaraz only his second loss of the year with a stunning straight sets victory.

Medvedev v Sinner Odds:

• Daniil Medvedev – 16/5
• Jannik Sinner – 2/9

Sinner, meanwhile, made it five consecutive straight sets wins by dropping only six games to Alexander Zverev. Losses to Jakub Mensik and Novak Djokovic in Doha and Melbourne, respectively, meant it wasn’t the best start to 2026 for the Italian, but he’s been at his dominant best in this tournament.

This is the 16th meeting between the players. Overall, it’s been close, but Medvedev’s wins were almost exclusively before Sinner became the player we know today. Sinner has won eight of the last nine matchups, including a straight sets win in last year’s ATP Finals.

The first couple of months of the year have been a mixed bag for Medvedev. Disappointing results in Doha and Melbourne were balanced out by tournament wins in Dubai and Brisbane.

Even on a 57% first-serve rate, Sinner was imperious against Zverev. As well as Medvedev played in his semi-final, does he really have an answer to the Italian in this form?

Pick: Jannik Sinner -4.5 games (11/10)

If you’re reading this ahead of the Indian Wells Open women’s final, check out out tipster’s thoughts ahead of Aryna Sabalenka v Elena Rybakina.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*