Australian Open final preview: Nadal on the verge of history

After a pulsating two weeks of action from the first Grand Slam of 2022, only two players remain to fight out the final in Melbourne this weekend.

We preview the match between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev below.

Nadal on course for first Australian Open in 13 years

Rafael Nadal has 20 Grand Slams titles to his name, but the Australian Open counts for only one of those, with his sole triumph coming back in 2009. Since then the Spaniard has reached a further four finals in Melbourne only to fall short, losing twice to Novak Djokovic and once each to Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka.

There is no Djokovic to stand in his way this year, and this looks to be Nadal’s golden opportunity to break the all-time men’s singles Grand Slam record and stand alone on 21 titles.

Standing in his way is Daniil Medvedev, the 25-year-old Russian who won his first Grand Slam title at last year’s US Open. The pair have only met four times in the past, with the record standing 3-1 in Nadal’s favour, and including a five-set defeat of the Russian in the 2019 US Open. Their last meeting on the 2020 ATP Tour went the other way however, with Medvedev coming back from a set down to claim victory. Medvedev has also improved as a player since then and will pose more of a threat to Nadal now.

So far this tournament Rafa has had a steely look of determination in his eye, dropping only four sets on his route to the final, but he now faces the form player in world tennis.

Medvedev has the game to unsettle Nadal

There’s plenty to suggest that Medvedev is beginning to reach the peak of his powers and he has lost just four times in 29 matches since his defeat of Djokovic at Flushing Meadows in September.

Barring a quarter-final scare against Félix Auger-Aliassime, where he produced a fine comeback from two sets down, his path to the final in Melbourne has been a relatively smooth one. He has dropped just five sets in total and produced a resounding win over world number four, Stefanos Tsitsipas, in the semi-finals.

Medvedev is known for his dangerous backhand, which he uses to find impossible angles from anywhere on the court, but it may be his unorthodox forehand that proves key against Nadal. Hit with a short backswing, his shots tend to play deep and keep low, almost the antithesis of Nadal’s. The Spaniard will be hoping to make the rallies last using his heavy topspin from the base line and wear the Russian down, but that may not be easy if Medvedev steps in and strikes the ball early.

A classic in store

There are few players with a greater will to win than Nadal and when he sets his mind on something it takes brilliance from his opponent to stop him. Will the weight of history hang heavily on his shoulders or spur him on?

Medvedev is the 1/2 favourite to win a second Grand Slam, but with the Spaniard’s record in big finals and a shot at history on the line, he may be able to upset the odds at 8/5.

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