Indian Wells: BNP Paribas Open Betting Preview And Predictions (2025)

Defending champions Iga Świątek and Carlos Alcaraz are two of the tennis betting favourites for the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which begins with the qualifying round on Wednesday.

Alcaraz is aiming to become the third player in the competition’s history to win three straight titles after Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer.

Champion in 2022 and 2024, a third title in four years will make Świątek the most successful woman in Indian Wells history.

Beyond the reigning champions, the online betting markets inevitably fancy top seeds Alexander Zverev and Aryna Sabalenka.

Zverev was runner-up at the Australian Open, losing to Jannik Sinner in the final. Sabalenka also lost the final in Melbourne, falling to American Madison Keys.

Indian Wells is one of the most prestigious events on the tennis calendar. It drew almost half a million fans in 2024, making it the best-attended event outside the four Grand Slams.

With 1000 ranking points available for the winner of the men’s and women’s draws, the first half of the Sunshine Double is a high-stakes event.

Men’s Draw

Australian Open champion and world number one Jannik Sinner is suspended for this event – and the next couple of months – following a positive test for Clostebol.

The men’s draw sees in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas, fresh off a triumph in Dubai, in the same section as Alexander Zverev, with the pair on course to meet in the quarter-final.

The bottom half of the draw notably features Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. The superstar duo are set to matchup in the last eight if they win their first three matches.

It looks like a routine path for Alcaraz, while Djokovic will be heavily favoured to reach the quarters, despite sitting in the same section as Alex de Minaur.

Zverev and Daniil Medvedev are the first and third seeds, respectively, but bettors would do well to steer clear.

Medvedev is in an almighty slump, including an early exit in Melbourne, and his frustration has often boiled over. Is Zverev really capable of coming out on top in such a talented field?

Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev picked up titles in the middle east, standing them in good stead ahead of this tournament.

The former looks a good bet to build on his strong showing in Dubai, while the latter will be aiming to upset the home favourites with Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton potentially standing in his way before the semi finals.

Women’s Draw

The women’s draw looks wide open. Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t dominated as she threatened to. Nor have Iga Świątek or Coco Gauff. The triumvirate have a total of one title between them so far in 2025.

Gauff has lost three straight matches to players outside the top 10 for the first time since 2020.

Świątek hasn’t been at her best in 2025, despite some flashes of brilliance.

She hasn’t won a title since last year’s French Open and suffered a pair of upsets in the middle east, with a hammering at the hands of Jelena Ostapenko in Doha and a shock loss to Mirra Andreeva in Dubai.

Sabalenka spoke of prioritising her long-term form ahead of the tournaments in Doha and Dubai. Poor results followed, but the world’s best player clearly thinks she can flick the switch in California.

It would be foolish to write Sabalenka off, particularly with the imperious form we saw from her earlier in the year.

Jessica Pegula looked to find her touch in Austin. It was a weak field, though, so it’s hard to know how that will carry over into the star-studded draw at Indian Wells.

Very few of the top 10 have been playing at a high level consistently in 2025. Australian Open champion Madison Keys missed the last two events from injury, and is on a collision course with Gauff, who has played well at Indian Wells in the past.

Following a surprise run to the final in Doha, we’d consider Ostapenko as a longshot bet with how unappealing many of the higher seeds are.

The form Sabalenka showed on the hard courts in Australia makes her our pick to win the tournament, and we’d stay well clear of Świątek and Pegula with how the draw has fallen.

*Odds correct at the time of writing – subject to change*