The Madrid Open is the latest high-profile clay-court tournament. Following the Monte Carlo Masters in early April, the world’s best players head to the Spanish capital for a fortnight of tennis.
The clay-court season has well and truly ramped up after events in Barcelona and Munich.
With the Italian Open to come before everyone battles it out for the second Grand Slam of the year at Roland Garros, performances in Madrid are often indicative of how players will fare in Paris at the end of May.
Familiar names are among the tennis betting favourites. Iga Świątek, the 2024 champion, shares the shortest odds in the women’s draw with Aryna Sabalenka. Carlos Alcaraz, a perennial betting favourite and two-time champion in Madrid, is 11/5 despite losing the final of the Barcelona Open to Holger Rune.
Men’s Draw
Despite the slip-up against Rune, Alcaraz is the deserving favourite in the men’s draw. The Spaniard won in Monte Carlo and boasts a career 82.6% winning rate on clay courts, including nine career titles.
His run to the final is challenging, potentially featuring Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic, but Alcaraz has been the dominant force on the clay in the 2020s and will take some beating.
Up to world number two and the top seed for this event, Alexander Zverev theoretically has the easiest path to the final. Zverev was exceptional during his win in Munich earlier this month and has had success at this tournament in the past with two previous titles to his name.
Last year’s winner, Andrey Rublev, is a tricky quarter-final opponent, though, and it’s worth noting Zverev had a favourable run in Munich after a first-round exit at the Monte Carlo Masters.
Djokovic’s name is all that makes him the second favourite here. The Serbian could face has potential clashes with Sebastian Baez, Ugo Humbert, Frances Tiafoe, and Jack Draper and has struggled of late, including a first-round exit in Monte Carlo.
While he’s excelled in Madrid in the past, it’s a huge ask to go all the way.
Rune and Jack Draper are the best value options outside of the top three. Rune’s confidence couldn’t be higher on the clay, while Draper has been playing excellent tennis in 2025 and potentially has a favourable run to the latter stages.
Women’s Draw
Iga Świątek might be the star of the clay courts, but Madrid is likely to see another matchup with her nemesis, Jelena Ostapneko. Ostapenko has a 6-0 record against Świątek and recently got the better of Aryna Sabalenka.
With quicker courts, the Madrid Open often favours players with more power. A big serve is a much more useful weapon than it is at other clay-court events, and players need to be more aggressive from the baseline.
This works in Sabalenka’s favour, who is ranked number one in the world and has reached the final of her last three events.
Ostapenko prevented the Belarussian winning in Stuttgart, however, capping a phenomenal run of tennis in Germany. Once again facing a difficult draw, it’s a longshot that the Latvian can replicate that form over 12 days of tennis in the Spanish capital.
We don’t feel confident taking Świątek at this price with her struggles against Ostapenko. Sabalenka is the much better option of the favourites given her near-flawless play in recent weeks.
Even as a real outsider, we would consider taking Jasmine Paolini as an each-way bet. Improving on all facets of the game, Paolini recently defeated Coco Gauff in straight sets and has landed in a relatively easy part of the bracket.
Elsewhere, the highly talented Mirra Andreeva is worth consideration at 9/1. The teenager beat Sabalenka and Świątek in Indian Wells.
While her clay season didn’t start well, she reached the semis of the French Open less than 12 months ago and could regain that form in Madrid.
Men’s Winner Odds
- Carlos Alcaraz – 11/5
- Novak Djokovic – 15/2
- Alexander Zverev – 10/1
- Casper Ruud – 18/1
- Taylor Fritz – 20/1
- Holger Rune – 22/1
Women’s Winner Odds
- Aryna Sabalenka – 3/1
- Iga Świątek – 3/1
- Mirra Andreeva – 9/1
- Elena Rybakina – 12/1
- Coco Gauff – 12/1
- Jessica Pegula – 16/1
- Madison Keys – 20/1
- Jelena Ostapenko – 20/1
Previous Men’s Winners
- 2024 – Andrey Rublev
- 2023 – Carlos Alcaraz
- 2022 – Carlos Alcaraz
- 2021 – Alexander Zverev
- 2019 – Novak Djokovic
- 2018 – Alexander Zverev
- 2017 – Rafael Nadal
- 2016 – Novak Djokovic
- 2015 – Andy Murray
Previous Women’s Winners
- 2024 – Iga Świątek
- 2023 – Aryna Sabalenka
- 2022 – Ons Jabeur
- 2021 – Aryna Sabalenka
- 2019 – Kiki Bertens
- 2018 – Petra Kvitova
- 2017 – Simona Halep
- 2016 – Simona Halep
- 2015 – Petra Kvitova
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
