Love Island final: First day flames beat belated bombshells

As Love Island fans eagerly await the grand finale of series 11 on Monday, new research from William Hill Vegas has shed light on a key factor that could predict this season’s winners.

According to the research, contestants who enter the villa on the first day are significantly more likely to win the show, handing current favourites Nicole and Ciaran a massive boost ahead of Monday’s final.

The study, which examined the entry days of all Love Island winners since the show’s return in 2015, found that 12 out of the 20 champions made their entrance on the very first day of the programme. This trend suggests that early arrivals have a notable advantage – arguably due to having more time to form connections and build public support – and somewhat disproves the significance of the ‘bombshell’ arrivals in the villa.

Analysing the data even further, only one of the previous 10 seasons included a winning couple whereby neither boy or girl were present in the villa on the opening day – Davide Sanclimenti and Ekin-Su Cülcüloğlu the only pair to defy the trend in season seven, after arriving in the villa on days four and nine respectively.

This trend bodes well for Welsh duo Ciaran Davies and Nicole Samuel ahead of Monday’s final, who are the only couple still standing who both entered the villa on the first day and the firm favourites with William Hill to take home the £50,000 prize this year.

Lee Phelps, spokesperson for William Hill Vegas, commented: “Love Island is all about emotion, connections, and making a lasting impression, but our research adds an intriguing layer of design to predicting who might come out on top.

“Our data clearly shows that those who join the villa from day one have a significant advantage over their ‘bombshell’ counterparts, likely because they have more time to build strong relationships and win the hearts of the audience.

“With the research pointing to a higher success rate for first-day entrants, this year’s strong market favourites Nicole and Ciaran are not just fan favourites but statistically well-positioned to win the £50,000 prize.

“As fans prepare for Monday’s grand finale, it’s interesting to consider how these findings play into the dynamics of the show. While Love Island remains a rollercoaster of emotions and unexpected twists, understanding the impact of entry timing adds an important element to predicting the outcome. Nicole and Ciaran’s journey could well prove to be further evidence of this compelling trend.”

Check out the latest Love Island odds here.