By William Hill
Last Updated: 7th January 2020
Monday 2nd July
Kick-off: 15:00pm BST
Stadium: Samara Arena, Samara
Live on ITV
Brazil vs Mexico odds
The odds of a draw after 90 minutes stand at 3/1.
Brazil’s odds to qualify are 1/5 whilst Mexico stands at 10/3.
Brazil vs Mexico line-ups
Brazil 4-3-3: Brazil : Alisson; Fagner, Miranda, Thiago Silva, Filipe Luis; Coutinho, Casemiro, Paulinho; Willian, Gabriel Jesus, Neymar
Mexico 4-2-3-1: Ochoa; Alvarez, Salcedo, Ayala, Gallardo; Marquez; Vela, Hector Herrera, Guardado, Lozano; Hernandez.
Brazil vs Mexico team news
Atletico Madrid left-back Filipe Luis will continue in place of the injured Marcelo, after replacing the Real Madrid man during the match against Serbia. Tite will name an otherwise unchanged team.
Mexico have no fresh injury concerns, however will be without defensive lynchpin Hector Moreno, who is suspended after picking up two yellow cards in the group stages. He could be replaced by Hugo Ayala, who was present in the 1-0 victory against Germany.
Forwards Javier Hernandez, Carlos Vela and Hirving Lozano are all set to start.
Mexico captain Andres Guardado remains optimistic about the odds of El Tricolor ending their last 16 hoodoo and progressing past Brazil.
“There’s nothing better than to write history” Guardado said. “What better motivation than to face the match of our lives against a five-time world champion. It’s the perfect stage.”
Mexico’s last-16 curse
The odds are that Mexico will crash out in the next round, despite a 1997 Simpsons prediction suggesting otherwise.
Mexico’s record of knock-outs at this stage is ludicrous – the central American side have been eliminated at the last-16 round six consecutive times.
For some apparent reason, this stage of the competition seems to be their choke-point. But could this year be any different?
Brazil vs Mexico match stats
Seleção’s qualification from the group stage to the knock-out round meant they had done so for the 13th consecutive tournament – a run stretching back to 1970.
Brazil’s win against Mexico also meant that they had won back to back World Cup matches for the first time since 2010.
Mexico’s qualification meant they had now reached the last 16 in each of the last eight World Cup tournaments they participated in. This is despite the fact they suffered their heaviest defeat at the finals since losing 6-0 to Germany in 1978.
Brazil have now won 19 of their 24 matches under Tite, giving the Brazilian manager a win percentage of 79%.
Brazil vs Mexico players to watch
Mexico full-back Edson Alvarez scored the seventh own-goal of this tournament for Sweden – more than there has ever been in any previous World Cup.
Neymar has recorded a healthy numbers of shots, dribbles and key passes so far but has only one goal and one assist to his name – his fifth goal and second assist in eight World Cup appearances for Brazil.
His team-mates Jesus and Paulinho are the other threats for this Brazil side, alongside Coutinho who has now been involved in six goals in his last seven matches.
Only Neymar and Gabriel Jesus (10 goals) have scored more goals for Brazil under Tite than Paulinho (8 goals). Gabriel Jesus to score first odds are standing at 4/1.
Mexico had 20 shots today but failed to find the net with any of them – they last had more shots without scoring in a World Cup game against Germany in 1978 (22).